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Apr
06
2019

Clemson \ NC State : Similar seasons, but likely different futures.

The NCAA tournament is nearly complete. The field had neither Clemson or NC State. Both made the NIT as 2 seeds, but neither made it New York. By any any measure Clemson and NC State had very similar seasons. 

A look at their resumes show much didn’t separate the two.

Let’s take a look at those resumes right now.

RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com and I will also list the NCAA.net Rankings which is the new ranking system used by the committee.

(97) NC State (24-12) (9-9) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 33

Good Wins –  *(18) Auburn, (60) Clemson, (60) Clemson, *(38) Syracuse, (94) Penn State

Bad Losses – (154) Georgia Tech, (178) Wake Forest

Notes – NC State simply needed more quality wins to feel NCAA safe(60) Clemson (20-14) (9-9) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 35

Good Wins –  (70) Libscomb, (99) South Carolina *(27) Virginia Tech, (38) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (130) Miami

Notes – Clemson simply needed more quality wins to feel NCAA safe.  ( That sounds just like NC State! )

 

NC State had two head to head wins this year over Clemson by a total of 3 points. Neither had much to speak in terms of Quadrant 1 wins. Clemson was 1-10 in Quadrant 1 wins. NC State was 3-9. Yikes! 14-18 Georgia Tech had just 1 fewer Quadrant 1 wins than both Clemson and NC State combined!

How do you separate these teams?

Clemson had a stronger regular season finish, but then went down to NC State in the ACC Tournament.

NC State had a couple of worse losses. The late season home loss to Georgia Tech was a resume killer.

The Wolfpack did have the one solid OOC win against Auburn, where Clemson’s best OOC win was Libscomb. Libscomb beat NC State in the NIT.

NC State and Clemson finished tied during the ACC’s regular season. 

Clemson has the best win between the two with the victory over Virginia Tech.

NC State’s SOS was in the 120s which was the worst in the ACC. Clemson was currently in the upper 30s.

This exercise has proven that the two were very similar with some positives and a number of negatives. Ultimately these were at best NCAA bubble teams that left their NCAA inclusion up to the committee.

That’s where the similarities end. We ask next what about their futures?

Are you are feeling confident on how they will perform next year in their games or on any other teams’ games, you can make some money at one of the many Canadian betting related sites.

When I look at NC State and Clemson, I see two programs likely headed in opposite directions.

Following last year’s Sweet 16 season, Clemson was expected to be a NCAA tournament team. They weren’t and now with the departure of Shelton Mitchell, Elijah Thomas, and Marquise Reed Clemson loses the bulk of their scoring. Brad Brownell now has just 2 NCAA appearances in 9 years, and Clemson is likely not make the NCAA tournament next year. They have just one top 150 recruit coming. Brownell has never recruited all that well anyways. He’s a decent enough Xs and Os coach, but it’s hard envision a scenario where he makes Clemson a consistent top 25 team after nearly a decade at the helm.

NC State under Kevins Keatts has won 45 games in his first two years, and made the NCAA tournament last year. I actually thought the win over Clemson in the ACC tournament would get them in the NCAAs. He’s proven to be a solid recruiter too. Jalen Leaque is a top 40 commit, that may reclassify and enter the NBA draft. Even if Leaque goes, what I like is that Keatts has already shown the ability to land a recruit higher rated than anyone Brownell ever has.

Keatts has matched or exceeded his pre-season ACC rankings in both of his first two. There’s still sense of momentum with NC State, while Clemson seems like they missed a rare opportunity at back to back NCAA seasons.

Similar years in 2019, but I see Clemson gradually marching towards to the end Brad Brownell era, while I see Kevin Keatts turning NC State into a program where they make the NCAA tournament far more often than they miss it.

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