Give @MattZemek a twitter follow and check out his musings on college sports at https://www.patreon.com/Zemek.
If the North Carolina Tar Heels had made one shot at the very end of Friday night’s thrilling ACC Tournament semifinal against the Duke Blue Devils, they would be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, no questions asked.
They missed that shot. They lost by one point. In a bottom-line world, they might be a No. 2 seed.
Naturally, the conversation surrounding North Carolina will focus on this “1 seed or 2 seed” question before the brackets are revealed. Naturally, it is a point of pride for blue-blood schools to tout their number of appearances on the top seed line. Naturally, being a 1 seed is generally supposed to mean a more favorable path than a 2 seed. Yet, the “1 seed or 2 seed” question — while certainly possessing some value — does not fully address North Carolina’s situation or express the Tar Heel’s foremost need on Selection Sunday.
What does UNC need above and beyond anything else? It’s not a No. 1 seed — not entirely. A No. 1 seed would very likely address Carolina’s needs, but it wouldn’t guarantee that the Tar Heels would get what they want out of the brackets on Sunday evening.
Here is what North Carolina needs: a region other than the South.
The South Regional will be in Louisville, and it is hard to shake the notion that regardless of whether it is a No. 1 seed or a No. 2 seed, Kentucky will be sent to the South and Louisville. Kentucky would have a partisan crowd and a very short commute for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, the kind of advantage which is coveted in a high-stakes game.
Yes, I do recall that in 1995, Dean Smith’s loaded UNC group went down to Birmingham — SEC country — and handled Rick Pitino’s Kentucky team. North Carolina has certainly been able to win in front of difficult crowds in NCAA Tournaments. The 1981 North Carolina team had to beat Utah on the road in Salt Lake City in the West Regional to reach the Final Four in Philadelphia. Playing a semi-road game is hardly a prison sentence with no hope of escape.
However, Carolina has certainly gotten the short end of the stick in certain situations in recent years. (Yeah, I know: NOT VERY OFTEN. No one will — or should — have much empathy for the Tar Heels on this matter. I am aware.) It had to play the 2012 Midwest Regional final in St. Louis against Kansas and had to fight against the crowd. (Not having Kendall Marshall was obviously the bigger handicap for that game, but the crowd still have Kansas a helpful push.) The 1988 West Regional final against Arizona in Seattle was a road game.
Moreover, North Carolina won’t be in the East Region, since Virginia has the 1 line there, so in the Sweet 16, UNC knows it won’t have an ideal situation to begin with…
… but Kentucky in Louisville is clearly the worst of a few options.
Let’s say Kentucky beats Tennessee in the SEC semifinals on Saturday. That would very likely lock up a 1 seed for Big Blue. Duke would then go to the Midwest Region as a 1 seed. North Carolina would not be a 2 seed in Duke’s region, so the Tar Heels would want the 2 seed in the West with Gonzaga.
Let’s say Tennessee beats Kentucky. In that case, UK might be the 2 seed in the South, and the top three ACC teams could all be No. 1 seeds. North Carolina would much rather allow Duke to have the 1 seed in the South. The Tar Heels would prefer to go to the Midwest to avoid Kentucky in Louisville. Kansas might be there in the Midwest, with the regionals in Kansas City, but the Jayhawks have a very incomplete team and would be a preferred opponent for Carolina if compared to Kentucky. KU in KC would be better than UK in Louisville.
Here is the other point worth making about Carolina relative to seeding, bracketing and placement: The Tar Heels might have lost to Duke, but they lost by only one point. Most people would agree with the claim that if UNC is a 2 seed and not a 1 seed, it would be the strongest No. 2 seed on the board, fifth on the NCAA 1-68 seed list. Given this reality, North Carolina would certainly feel it was treated fairly if it was sent West with Gonzaga. Being the strongest No. 2 seed (No. 5 on the 1-68 seed list) wouldn’t feel like a reward at all if it meant a 2 seed with Kentucky as the 1 seed in the South.
Now you know what UNC needs on Selection Sunday. All that’s left to do is watch Kentucky-Tennessee and then wait for the brackets to be revealed.
Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page
Leave a Reply