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In these days before Selection Sunday, you will hear talk about seeds and regions, and to be sure, they do contain a certain amount of value. However, the ultimately important detail about the NCAA Tournament — the one which transcends the seeds and the regional placement — is the difficulty of the bracket path. The Virginia Cavaliers are aware of this.
When I looked at the brackets last year, I thought Villanova and Michigan had great paths to the national title game, so I picked that matchup. Duke figured to be a tough out for Nova in the Final Four, but the Blue Devils never did get to San Antonio. Kansas picked off Coach K in the Elite Eight. Villanova destroyed the Jayhawks in the national semifinals. Michigan’s one really big obstacle in the 2018 bracket was North Carolina, but as soon as the Tar Heels were obliterated in round two by Texas A&M, Michigan’s road to the Final Four and then Monday Night was wide open.
Seeds are supposed to give certain teams a better route to the Final Four than others. A 1 seed is conceptually supposed to enjoy an easier draw than a 2 seed. However, that doesn’t mean the seed matchups actually do make life more comfortable. In almost every year of NCAA Tournament play, there is at least one example of a lower-seeded team playing close to home against a higher seed.
The quality of the bracket path is the true prize teams want, and the true curse they want to avoid.
With this in mind, which is the one team Virginia wants to avoid in its region?
Remember: With three ACC teams on the top two seed lines in some combination, Virginia won’t have to worry about Duke or North Carolina in its own region. The NCAA might put Kentucky in the South to sell tickets in Louisville. That would steer clear of UVA, which is expected to be in the East. Gonzaga will be in the West. Virginia will miss the Zags.
Texas Tech played its way out of a 2 seed with its loss to West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament. Tennessee would not be able to go to the South Region if Kentucky is already there, so the Vols would be a possibility for Virginia in the East Region. Houston will not be a 2 seed after a recent loss to UCF.
So, which team not discussed yet could actually trouble the Cavaliers?
Some answers such as pesky (2018 national runner-up) Michigan would be entirely logical. Some answers — LSU as a possible No. 2 seed but without Will Wade — would not be nearly as logical. Virginia would love that matchup in a 1-versus-2 Elite Eight game.
The one answer which stands out as the team Virginia doesn’t want to see in the East Region on the 2 line Sunday evening is obvious: Michigan State.
It could not be anyone else.
For the sake of argument, let’s say Kentucky to the South Region is not a lock. The Wildcats would certainly be a tough foe for Virginia. Their defense would be hard to solve. They could easily defeat the Hoos, and do so by 10 or more points.
However, Michigan State has a recent history with Virginia, and it is colored Green.
The Spartans and Tom Izzo beat Virginia in the 2014 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 when UVA was a No. 1 seed. They beat Virginia the very next year in a 7-over-2 upset. Michigan State has a dominant point guard, Cassius Winston, who could not only break even, but probably win, his individual matchup against Virginia. Nick Ward, MSU’s big man, was out for multiple weeks, but he is now back and will have a chance to develop his conditioning in the intervening weeks.
An elite coach. A star point guard. A recovering big man who might be fresher than his opponents during March Madness.
Virginia can live with Tennessee, LSU, Purdue, and others… but it can’t live with Michigan State as the 2 seed in its region.
Let’s see what happens on Selection Sunday.
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