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The North Carolina State Wolfpack made March more interesting in the ACC… but not in a remotely good way.
The first rule of Fight Club for college basketball bubble teams is to not do anything really stupid. Losing at home to Georgia Tech is stupid. North Carolina State was viewed to be in the NCAA Tournament throughout the ACC season, but now, no one can say with certainty what the Pack’s fate will be. Losing at home to Georgia Tech is the perfect way to go from a 10 seed to the “last four in/first four out” cut line. A game at Boston College this upcoming Saturday can’t improve N.C. State’s resume. A loss will hurt. A win will be valuable merely for the avoidance of a bad loss. If we are being realistic, the Wolfpack must beat Boston College and win their first game at the ACC Tournament. That would leave them in the conversation on Selection Sunday, with a reasonable chance of getting into the field of 68. A win in the ACC quarterfinals against the No. 1 seed would make N.C. State a lock. Anything short of that? White-knuckle time on Sunday, March 17.
This is the reality into which North Carolina State has plunged. What was uncomplicated is now very stressful.
Gosh, that’s such an “N.C. State” reality, it hurts me to type it… but it’s real.
Fighting with North Carolina State on the ACC bubble is Clemson. The Tigers stayed alive with a narrow win at Notre Dame on Wednesday. That escape was important because the Tigers avoided a bad loss. This upcoming Saturday, they can notch a resume-boosting win over Syracuse. Let’s be real, though: Beating Syracuse doesn’t transform a resume to the extent that beating North Carolina this past weekend would have done.
If Clemson wins one more game — against Syracuse or at the ACC Tournament — it will remain in the conversation on Selection Sunday. This doesn’t mean the Tigers’ odds will be good, but they will be in the picture to some degree. Recall past Selection Sundays when teams such as Tulsa (2016), UCLA (2015) or UAB (2011) surprised virtually everyone by making the field as an “out of nowhere” at-large team. Clemson could be that team if it wins one more game. Without one more win, though, the Tigers won’t be seriously considered by the selection committee. One win is not irrelevant at this point.
Realistically, two wins would solidify Clemson’s position on this bubble. The Tigers have whiffed so many times in Quadrant 1 games this season. If a lot of chaos occurs in conference tournaments, taking some at-large spots off the board, Clemson will sorely need a larger margin for error. That larger margin will be provided by a second win before Selection Sunday. One win maintains a conversation. Two wins move the needle.
Into this context emerges one part of the bubble drama enfolding N.C. State and Clemson: Very simply, the two teams will meet in the 8-9 game at the ACC Tournament.
If the ACC wanted nine bids in the NCAA Tournament, this is not how it will happen. The very small margins facing both the Pack and the Tigers mean that an early clash next week likely allows one team to go Dancing, and forces the loser to head to the NIT. Maybe Clemson can get enough mileage out of beating Syracuse that it can still make the field after losing to NCSU in the ACC Tournament, but that’s a very narrow window. Giving one bubble team the benefit of the doubt seems reasonable; two is a much harder sell.
Had these teams been able to face other opponents in their first ACC Tournament games, a nine-bid ACC would be more realistic, since both North Carolina State and Clemson would have had a good chance of advancing to the quarterfinals. Now, only one will. That losing team next Wednesday will have a very long wait until Selection Sunday, and it’s hard to be terribly optimistic about that team’s prospects.
Life on the bubble is painful. One of either North Carolina State or Clemson might find a way to relieve pain in the coming days, but don’t expect both teams to put on Dancing shoes on March 17.
More will be written on these two teams as their bubble journeys continue. Stay tuned.
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