This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com and I will also list the NCAA.net Rankings which is the new ranking system used by the committee.
Locks
(1) Duke (24-3) (12-2) Projected Seed 1
NCAA.Net ranking : 3
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – *(37) Auburn, (80) Indiana, *(20) Texas Tech, *(7) Kentucky, *(37) Yale, (65) Clemson, *(15) Florida State, *(3) Virginia, (87) Princeton, *(3) Virginia, *(35) St. Johns, *(27) Louisville, (95) NC State, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – None
Notes – When does Zion Williamson return? Duke is a top 10 team without him, but they aren’t winning the national title unless he’s healthy. I’m guessing he’s back within 2 weeks.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/26 – @Virginia Tech
3/2 – Miami
(3) Virginia (24-2) (12-2) Projected Seed 1
NCAA.Net ranking : 2
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – *(25) Wisconsin, *(23) VCU, *(19) Maryland, (70) Dayton, (66) Marshall, *(15) Florida State, (65) Clemson, *(29) Virginia Tech, (74) South Carolina, *(6) UNC, (95) NC State, (29) Virginia Tech
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Virginia beats two ranked teams on the road this past week. They continue just roll against everyone not named Duke. The schedule this week is basically a layup for the Hoos.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – Georgia Tech
3/2 – Pittsburgh
(6) North Carolina (22-5) (12-2) Projected Seed 1
NCAA.Net ranking : 6
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – (51) Davidson, *(32) Wofford, * (5) Gonzaga, *(29) Virginia Tech, *(27) Louisville, (80) Harvard, (95) NC State, (95) NC State, *(2) Duke
Bad Losses – None
Notes – UNC is making it to the 1 line this week after dominanting wins over Duke and Florida State. Now I don’t believe the ACC will get three 1 seeds, but today at this moment UNC belongs there. They must sweep to stay there.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/26 – Syracuse
3/2 – @Clemson
(15) Florida State (21-6) (9-5) Projected Seed 4
NCAA.Net ranking : 24
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – *(11) Purdue, *(13) LSU, (65) Florida, (65) Clemson, *(27) Louisville, *(39) Syracuse, (65) Clemson
Bad Losses – (130) Boston College, (168) Pittsburgh
Notes – I’m not dropping FSU for losing at UNC. Their win over LSU is starting to look like one of the best OOC wins of the year.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/25 – Notre Dame
3/2 – NC State
(29) Virginia Tech (21-6) (10-5) Projected Seed 6
NCAA.Net ranking : 12
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – *(11) Purdue, *(18) Washington, (77) Northeastern, *(39) Syracuse, (95) NC State
Bad Losses – (102) Penn State
Notes – Virginia Tech has locked up a NCAA bid. They are playing for NCAA seeding and for a double bye in the ACC tournament. Duke this week is huge opportunity this week.
2/26 – Duke
(28) Louisville (18-10) (9-6) Projected Seed 8
NCAA.Net ranking : 22
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – *(12) Michigan State, (66) Vermont, (75) Lipscomb, (53) Seton Hall, *(6) UNC, (82) Kent State, *(29) Virginia Tech, (65) Clemson, (95) NC State
Bad Losses – *(168) Pittsburgh, (100) Indiana
Notes – Louisville has enough quality wins that they will make the NCAAs with just 1 more win. The problem is they suddenly are having a lot of difficulty holding on to 2nd half leads.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – @Boston College
3/3 – Notre Dame
(39) Syracuse (18-9) (9-5) Projected Seed 8
NCAA.Net ranking : 44
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – (54) Ohio State, (65) Clemson, *(2) Duke, (83) Georgetown, (77) Northeastern, *(27) Louisville
Bad Losses – (135) Connecticut, *(151) Georgia Tech
Notes – Syracuse is 1 more win from locking up their NCAA bid. A UNC over doesn’t seem likely, and Wake Forest can be a tricky game.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/26 – @UNC
3/2 – @Wake Forest
(95) NC State (20-8) (8-7) Projected Seed 9
NCAA.Net ranking : 32
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – *(37) Auburn, (65) Clemson, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – (154) Wake Forest
Notes – NC State is safely in this week, but they really could use another quality win. Their magic number is 2 more ACC wins.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
3/2 – @Florida State
Bubble But In
NONE
Bubble But Out
(65) Clemson (16-11) (6-8)
NCAA.Net ranking : 43
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (75) Libscomb, (74) South Carolina *(29) Virginia Tech, (94) Radford
Bad Losses – (111) Nebraska, (119) Miami
Notes – I can’t put Clemson in until they reach .500 in the ACC. There just aren’t enough quality wins. A win over over UNC this week would do wonders, but they have to get by Pittsburgh first.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – @Pittsburgh
3/2 – UNC
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(168) Pittsburgh (12-15) (2-12)
NCAA.Net ranking : 111
Last 10 – (0-10)
Good Wins – *(27) Louisville, *(15) Florida State
Bad Losses – *(309) Niagara, (124) West Virginia, *(154) Wake Forest, (130) Boston College, *(151) Georgia Tech
Notes – Pittsburgh lost to Georgia Tech last week. Nobody else has lost to Georgia Tech in over a month. Pitt can end Clemson’s NCAA chances this week if they pull the upset.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – Clemson
3/2 – @Virginia
(143) Notre Dame (13-14)(3-11)
NCAA.Net ranking : 105
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – *(11) Purdue
Bad Losses – *(151) Georgia Tech, (114) UCLA, (119) Miami, *(154) Wake Forest
Notes – Notre Dame hit rock bottom with a home loss to Wake Forest this past week. Mike Brey might start to feel some pressure going into next year.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/25 – @Florida State
3/3 – @Louisville
(130) Boston College (13-13) (4-10)
NCAA.Net ranking : 124
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – *(41) Minnesota, *(15) Florida State
Bad Losses – *(233) IUPUI, *(178) Hartford, (143) Notre Dame, (143) Notre Dame, (103) Providence
Notes – Isn’t it time to turn the page on the Jim Christian era?
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – Louisville
3/3 – @Georgia Tech
(151) Georgia Tech (12-16) (4-11)
NCAA.Net ranking : 129
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – (85) Arkansas, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – *(169) Gardner-Webb, *(160) Georgia, *(152) Northwestern, (143) Notre Dame
Notes – Georgia Tech fans will just have to wait Josh Pastner out, because he will be in Atlanta at least one more year.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/27 – @Virginia
3/3 – Boston College
(119) Miami (12-14) (4-10)
NCAA.Net ranking : 87
Last 10 – (3-7)
Good Wins – (65) Clemson, (90) Lehigh
Bad Losses – (136) Rutgers, (130) Boston College
Notes – ACC fans can’t wait for the pillow fight between Miami and Wake Forest this week.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/26 – @Wake Forest
3/2 – @Duke
(154) Wake Forest (10-16) (3-11)
NCAA.Net ranking : 192
Last 10 – (3-7)
Good Wins – (51) Davidson, (95) NC State
Bad Losses – *(282) Houston Baptist, *(249) Richmond, *(169) Gardner-Webb, *(186) St. Joseph’s, *(151) Georgia Tech, (119) Miami, (130) Boston College
Notes – Wake Forest hasn’t packed it in this season. The win at Notre Dame was a bit of a surprise. I think they’ll beat Miami or Syracuse this week.
This week’s upcoming games
2/26 – Miami
3/2 – Syracuse
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