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ACC QUESTION of the WEEK : Can North Carolina win the national championship?
If you were to form a list — let’s say, 10 teams — that could realistically win the national championship, North Carolina would be on it. I don’t think we have to wrestle with that question too much.
When dealing with a single-elimination bracketed tournament, the important question isn’t “Can this team win?”
The real question is: “How good are the chances this team can win?” A key follow-up question: “What conditions or circumstances would help or hurt this team’s chances?”
Let’s have that conversation.
First of all, as I wrote this past week, Coby White is the biggest key to this team. Cam Johnson and Luke Maye will need to be solid, but you expect upperclassmen to be solid in March. The young guys — especially White, but also Nassir Little — can’t disappear. They can’t have nightmare games. They don’t need to be sensational, but they have to be dependable and make the important contributions at the important times in games. I don’t think UNC can withstand a game in which White goes 3 for 12 from the field with four turnovers.
Next, consider the matchups North Carolina would like to avoid — or embrace — in March.
Kentucky roughed up the Tar Heels with its size, length and muscle. Michigan outworked Roy Williams’ boys. North Carolina ran with Gonzaga and won. North Carolina should do well against teams which will either allow the Heels to get into a track meet or who simply lack the defensive chops to turn UNC’s offense into sludge. Teams which can bang and shove the Heels and engage in a physical contest would likely bother them — recall Texas A&M a year ago.
Duke will probably be in the East Region, Virginia in the South. North Carolina might wind up in the Midwest. The Tar Heels will be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Which team they get as the other top-two seed will be worth watching. If UNC is a 2 seed, the identity of the 3 seed in the bracket will obviously matter.
Check back on Selection Sunday. Then we will know a lot more about North Carolina’s path through six games in March Madness.
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