Duke should worry about one thing — and it’s not Zion Williamson

Give @MattZemek a twitter follow and check out his musings on college sports at https://www.patreon.com/Zemek. 

Many people are understandably worried about Zion Williamson. The Duke Blue Devils could worry about Zion if they choose to, but with Mike Krzyzewski using the word “stable” to describe the possible No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, it seems that Zion will be able to recover from the injury he suffered Wednesday night in an 88-72 loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.

If Zion chooses to play college basketball, it seems likely that he will be able to return to the floor before this Duke season is over. Don’t assume anything in life, but if that does turn out to be the case, Duke should be fine.

Worst-case scenario: Let’s say Zion decides to shut down his season and prepare for the NBA. What would that mean for the Blue Devils?

A realistic, no-B.S. answer to that question is that Duke would still be a 2-seed-caliber team.

R.J. Barrett. Tre Jones. Cam Reddish. These are not scrubs or bench-warmers. These are quality college basketball players with high ceilings. North Carolina didn’t beat a tomato can on Wednesday night in Cameron Indoor Stadium. It beat a team loaded with talent which was understandably thrown off balance — emotionally and tactically — by the loss of its leader and best player. This loss did not occur late in a game, when 85 or 90 percent of the action had already run its course. This injury occurred early in a game which received through-the-roof media coverage and was attended by a former President of the United States.

Coach K is one of the great basketball minds and leaders in the history of sports. That’s not hyperbolic. He is an iconic, transcendent coach, someone who belongs with John Wooden and Red Auerbach as a once-in-a-lifetime figure. Duke is not a resource-poor program. If Zion doesn’t rejoin this team on the court, there is still a lot to work with. This is still a national title contender, just not the clear-cut No. 1 team in the country.

Let’s keep it all in perspective, folks.

What SHOULD Duke worry about, then, regardless of whether Zion plays in future weeks? One answer towers above the rest: 3-point shooting.

It was said a few weeks ago — and it was not wrong — that if Duke shot 3-pointers the way it did against Virginia in Charlottesville, no one would touch the Blue Devils. No one would disagree with that statement.

However: This does not mean it is advisable for Duke to shoot lots of threes. It is not and will not be Duke’s preferred — or most reliable — way of winning games. Yes, a 3-point barrage from this team will make it virtually untouchable, but that shouldn’t make the Blue Devils more inclined to launch shots.

Jack White hasn’t made a three in 10 years, unofficially. He went 0 for 5 from 3-point range against North Carolina. Six Duke players other than Barrett and Reddish played at least eight minutes against Carolina, five at least 17 minutes. Those six players who played at least eight minutes went 1 for 16 from 3-point range. The five who played at least 17 minutes went 1 for 14. Duke got only 12 points from those six players, and just four total free throw attempts.

You could say that most of the things which happened to Duke on Wednesday in Cameron will not recur in the rematch against North Carolina in Chapel Hill, and you would almost certainly be correct. Luke Maye is not going to go for 30 points and 15 boards. Cam Johnson won’t go for 26 (points), 7 (rebounds), 4 (assists) and 2 (steals). Zion won’t get injured one minute into the game — he will either play, or he will sit out, but he won’t get injured one minute in. (We think so, at least.)

However, one aspect of this game felt quite familiar: Duke’s 8-of-39 3-point shooting, matched against just four free throw attempts for players other than Barrett (10 attempts) and Reddish (5).

I discussed this for another site where I write about college basketball — CBBToday.com — after North Carolina State suffered its 47-24 loss to Virginia Tech on Feb. 2. 

It’s true that shooters need to be confident enough to keep shooting when they miss, but there is always a point at which a shooter who keeps missing needs to defer to a teammate or, if he wants to keep the ball, find a different way to create points. If Duke starts a game 2 for 15 or 1 for 13 from 3-point range, the team should be good enough to find those other avenues to score. It has the players who can find a Plan B. It certainly has the coach who can do the same. Duke is the LAST program which should be viewed as having only one way to score or win.

Yes, it is true in basketball that when players are given open shots, they will need to hit one to make defenses respect them more, which opens up the court for teammates. To that extent, there is nothing wrong with White trying an open corner three or two in the early stages of a game. However, Duke has enough resources to the extent that if it arrives at the under-8 TV timeout in the first half with a lot of missed threes on the stat sheet, it should be able to find another path.

If we are discussing how Duke can win the national championship — with or without Zion Williamson — this should be the main source of worry for the Blue Devils.

Everything else, including Zion, is secondary.

Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page