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Feb
18
2019

Virginia is the Rafael Nadal of College Basketball

Give @MattZemek a twitter follow and check out his musings on college sports at https://www.patreon.com/Zemek

Some of you might know that at my other Twitter account, @mzemek, I cover professional tennis for Tennis With An Accent, found at tennisaccent.com.

Our story on the Virginia Cavaliers’ 64-58 win over the Virginia Tech Hokies on Monday night in Blacksburg begins with a tweet which I can very cleanly connect to the tennis world:

The curiosity in the tweeted question above is natural, normal and understandable. It is indeed fascinating why Virginia’s opponents (other than Duke) get gummed up against the Cavaliers… or in Virginia Tech’s case, make only 3 of 28 threes on Monday night, which is barely better than the 2 of 28 threes North Carolina State made in its 47-24 loss to Virginia Tech a few weeks ago.

Yes, to a certain extent, you could simply say that Virginia Tech didn’t hit shots. Yes, the Hokies missed several clean looks which — had they fallen — would have created a very different game. Yet, it’s not an accident that Virginia Tech took all these threes. Virginia’s pack-line defense is based on the idea that college basketball teams aren’t comprised of supremely reliable perimeter shooters.

That’s a smart bet. It’s a percentage play. This leads me to the tennis comparison for Virginia basketball:

What was it like for 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas to play Rafael Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open semifinals three and a half weeks ago? Tsitsipas, a young, rising talent in the tennis world whom many feel will win multiple major titles in the 2020s, had a faraway look in his eyes as he groped for the right words and phrasings to express his befuddlement after Nadal destroyed him in three quick sets.

“I feel disappointed,” Tsitsipas said. “It’s a very, very weird feeling. I almost felt like I just couldn’t play better, a different dimension of tennis completely. He (Nadal) gives you no rhythm. He plays a different game style than the rest of the players. He has this talent that no other player has — I’ve never seen a player have this. He makes you play bad — I would call that a talent.”

You might know this, but let me draw out the comparison a little bit just to make it extra clear: Nadal does not play complicated tennis, especially against players such as Tsitsipas who have a one-handed backhand (like Roger Federer). Nadal hits heavy topspin shots to the backhand side. Whereas a two-handed backhand (which Novak Djokovic possesses) gives a tennis player more control and precision, the one-handed backhand is more explosive and diversified but less consistent. Nadal preys upon this aspect of the one-handed backhand and hits heavy, diving shots to that backhand wing, drawing a parade of errors from Tsitsipas, Federer, and other one-handers. Nadal bets that one-handed backhands, if tested long enough, will not make enough shots to beat him. Nadal bets that the one-handed backhands will break down.

Virginia does that to teams with 3-point shooting. Duke happened to shoot the cover off the ball, but not many other teams can… or will.

Virginia makes you play bad. Virginia makes you shoot longer shots. It makes opponents know that if they don’t make a good percentage of threes, they’re screwed. Each 3-pointer taken against Virginia is accompanied by that macro-level, meta-contextual pressure. It is very Nadal-like.

Sure, Virginia Tech shot 67 percent on 2-point shots, but the Hokies attempted just 30 such shots on Monday, making 20. As long as the threes weren’t falling for Virginia Tech, Virginia gave more of them — that was the conscious choice the Cavaliers made. Had Tech hit more threes, UVA might have adjusted its defensive approach, but with three after three clanging off the rims in Cassell Coliseum, what incentive was there for Tony Bennett to change his plan?

Yes, Virginia Tech could have won this game had it shot better from 3-point range.

Yes, Roger Federer could have beaten Rafael Nadal more often had he not missed so many one-handed backhands.

Some opponents win by playing pretty, and other opponents leave you muttering why you weren’t able to play better.

Tsitsipas is right: Making an opponent play bad is a talent. Virginia is a hugely talented team, just not in the way most of us are conditioned to expect.

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