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Feb
17
2019

NCAA Tournament Projections for each ACC team – February 17, 2019

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com and I will also list the NCAA.net Rankings which is the new ranking system used by the committee.

Locks

(1) Duke (23-2) (11-1) Projected Seed 1

NCAA.Net ranking : 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – *(39) Auburn, (80) Indiana, *(19) Texas Tech, *(7) Kentucky, *(37) Yale, (57) Clemson, *(17) Florida State, *(4) Virginia, (90) Princeton, *(4) Virginia, *(35) St. Johns,      *(24) Louisville, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Duke spotted Louisville 23 points on the road with 9 minutes left. They won, and it was incredible. Duke has a huge week ahead with UNC and Syracuse on the schedule.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – UNC

2/23 – @Syracuse

(4) Virginia (22-2) (10-2) Projected Seed 1 

NCAA.Net ranking : 3

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – *(25) Wisconsin, *(27) VCU, *(22) Maryland, (85) Dayton, (66) Marshall, *(17) Florida State, (57) Clemson, *(28) Virginia Tech, (81) South Carolina, *(10) UNC, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes – As long as Virginia isn’t playing Duke, they have been unbeatable. They are still on track for a #1 NCAA seed.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/18 – @Virginia Tech

2/23 – @Louisville

(10) North Carolina (20-5) (10-2) Projected Seed 2

NCAA.Net ranking : 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – *(44) Davidson, *(34) Wofford, * (5) Gonzaga, *(28) Virginia Tech, *(24) Louisville, (77) Harvard, (96) NC State, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – None

Notes –It’s Duke vs North Carolina week. What else needs to be said?

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – @Duke

2/23 – Florida State

(17) Florida State (20-5) (8-4) Projected Seed 4

NCAA.Net ranking : 25

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – *(13) Purdue, *(6)  LSU, (65) Florida, (57) Clemson, *(24) Louisville, *(43) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (130) Boston College, (154) Pittsburgh

Notes – Florida State hasn’t lost in nearly a month. They can move up to the 3 line with a sweep this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/19 – @Clemson

2/13 – @UNC

 (25) Louisville (18-8) (9-4) Projected Seed 6

NCAA.Net ranking : 16

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  *(14) Michigan State, (69) Vermont, (63) Lipscomb, *(46) Seton Hall, *(10) UNC, (78) Kent State, *(28) Virginia Tech, (57) Clemson, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – (154) Pittsburgh

Notes – If you want to beat Louisville, just press them – ask Duke.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – @Syracuse

2/23 – Virginia

(28) Virginia Tech (20-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 6

NCAA.Net ranking : 13

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  *(13) Purdue,  *(21) Washington, (74) Northeastern, *(43) Syracuse, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – (106) Penn State

Notes – Virginia Tech probably just needs 1 more win to lock up a NCAA bid. They have done this without Justin Robinson playing the last few weeks.

2/18 – Virginia

2/23 – @Notre Dame

(43) Syracuse (17-8) (8-4) Projected Seed 9

NCAA.Net ranking : 50

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  (54) Ohio State, (57) Clemson, *(1) Duke, (97) Georgetown, (74) Northeastern

Bad Losses –  (133) Connecticut, (151) Georgia Tech

Notes – If Syracuse loses both games this week, they could find themselves back on the bubble. They need at least a split.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – Louisville

2/23 – Duke

Bubble But In

(96) NC State (18-8) (6-7) Projected Seed 10

NCAA.Net ranking : 31

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  *(39) Auburn, (57) Clemson, *(43) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (172) Wake Forest

Notes – NC State has what appears to be a manageable week ahead. They can’t drop either game to Boston College or Wake Forest.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – Boston College

2/24 – Wake Forest

Bubble But Out 

(57) Clemson (15-10) (5-7) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 42

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (63) Libscomb, (81) South Carolina *(28) Virginia Tech, (94) Radford

Bad Losses – (108) Nebraska

Notes – No team needs a sweep worse than Clemson this week. The Tigers have played themselves right out of the Big Dance after being in the week before.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/19  – Florida State

2/23 – Boston College

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(153) Pittsburgh (12-14) (2-11)

NCAA.Net ranking : 102

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  *(24) Louisville, *(17) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(313) Niagara,  (121) West Virginia, *(172) Wake Forest, (130) Boston College

Notes – Pittsburgh has lost 5 straight games by single digits and 9 straight in total. A game against Georgia Tech this week could end the losing streak.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – @Georgia Tech

(125) Notre Dame (13-12)(3-9) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 94

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  *(13) Purdue

Bad Losses – (151) Georgia Tech, (114) UCLA, (108) Miami

Notes – Notre Dame made a game at Virginia a lot closer than anyone expected. If they sweep this week at home, the NIT is still a possibility.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/19 – Wake Forest

2/23 – Virginia Tech

(130) Boston College (13-11) (4-8)

NCAA.Net ranking : 131

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – *(45) Minnesota, *(17) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(227) IUPUI, *(174) Hartford, (125) Notre Dame, (125) Notre Dame, (103) Providence

Notes – Break out Boston College! They won both their games this past week against Pittsburgh and Miami.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – @NC State

2/23 – @Clemson

(151) Georgia Tech (11-15) (3-10)

NCAA.Net ranking : 118

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  (79) Arkansas, *(43) Syracuse

Bad Losses – *(169) Gardner-Webb, *(156) Georgia, *(150) Northwestern, (125) Notre Dame

Notes – Remember when Georgia Tech was 2-1 in the ACC? It’s true I promise.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/20 – Pittsburgh

2/23 – @Miami

(108) Miami (11-14) (3-10)

NCAA.Net ranking : 83

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins –  (88) Fresno State, (57) Clemson, (95) Lehigh

Bad Losses – (137) Rutgers

Notes – Miami won’t make the NCAAs, and this past week by upsetting Clemson, they have made sure the Tigers won’t make may it either.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/23 – Georgia Tech

(172) Wake Forest (9-15) (2-10) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 197

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  *(44) Davidson, (96) NC State

Bad Losses – *(284) Houston Baptist, *(256) Richmond, (169) Gardner-Webb, (182) St. Joseph’s, *(151) Georgia Tech, (108) Miami, (130) Boston College

Notes – I hope Danny Manning has updated his resume. He might need it at the end of the year.

This week’s upcoming games

2/19 – @Notre Dame

2/24 – @NC State

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