This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com and I will also list the NCAA.net Rankings which is the new ranking system used by the committee.
Locks
(2) Duke (21-2) (9-1) Projected Seed 1
NCAA.Net ranking : 2
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – *(34) Auburn, (63) Indiana, *(23) Texas Tech, *(7) Kentucky, *(36) Yale, *(45) Clemson, *(18) Florida State, *(6) Virginia, (73) Princeton, *(6) Virginia, *(40) St. Johns
Bad Losses – None
Notes – If Duke plays like they did against Virginia in a 81-71 win, they are winning the national championship. They have a gear no other college basketball team can match. Can they consistently play like that? A game at Louisville should be interesting.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/12 – @Louisville
2/16 – NC State
(6) Virginia (20-2) (8-2) Projected Seed 1
NCAA.Net ranking : 3
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – *(20) Wisconsin, *(28) VCU, *(24) Maryland, (85) Dayton, (66) Marshall, *(18) Florida State, *(45) Clemson, *(29) Virginia Tech, (78) South Carolina
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Virginia holds on to a 1 seed despite the loss to Duke. They didn’t really play that bad either. Duke just played that well. If the Hoos lose to UNC, they may drop to a 2 seed.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/11 – @UNC
2/16 – Notre Dame
(8) North Carolina (19-4) (9-1) Projected Seed 2
NCAA.Net ranking : 9
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – *(44) Davidson, *(38) Wofford, * (5) Gonzaga, *(29) Virginia Tech, *(19) Louisville
Bad Losses – None
Notes – If UNC wants to make a run at a 1 seed, it needs to start with a sweep this week. Virginia is a big showdown.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/11 – Virginia
2/16 – @Wake Forest
(18) Florida State (18-5) (6-4) Projected Seed 5
NCAA.Net ranking : 25
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – *(10) Purdue, *(11) LSU, (70) Florida, *(45) Clemson, *(19) Louisville, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – (130) Boston College, (145) Pittsburgh
Notes – Florida State has been all over the map in their play this year. Right now they are on a roll with this past week getting wins and at Syracuse and home win against Louisville. They have a good chance at a sweep this week, that would move them to a top 4 seed.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/13 – Wake Forest
2/16 – @Georgia Tech
(19) Louisville (17-7) (8-3) Projected Seed 5
NCAA.Net ranking : 15
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – *(15) Michigan State, (61) Vermont, (53) Lipscomb, (51) Seton Hall, *(8) UNC, (83) Kent State, *(29) Virginia Tech
Bad Losses – (145) Pittsburgh
Notes –Splitting at Virginia Tech and Florida State won’t hurt Louisville’s seeding. To move to a top 4 seed though, they’ll need a sweep of Duke and Clemson this week.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/12 – Duke
2/16 – Clemson
(29) Virginia Tech (18-5) (7-4) Projected Seed 6
NCAA.Net ranking : 14
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (10) Purdue, *(21) Washington, (81) Northeastern, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – (124) Penn State
Notes – Virginia Tech just needs to hang on during Justin Robinson’s injury. Last week they lost to Louisville and Clemson. This week things ease up with Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. I expect no worse than a split.
2/13 – Georgia Tech
2/16 – @Pittsburgh
(39) Syracuse (17-7) (8-3) Projected Seed 8
NCAA.Net ranking : 48
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – *(49) Ohio State, *(45) Clemson, *(2) Duke, (91) Georgetown, (81) Northeastern
Bad Losses – (133) Connecticut, (135) Georgia Tech
Notes – Can Syracuse steal a win at NC State and get off the 8/9 line?
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/13 – @NC State
Bubble But In
(45) Clemson (15-8) (5-5) Projected Seed 11
NCAA.Net ranking : 37
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (53) Libscomb, (78) South Carolina *(29) Virginia Tech, (76) Radford
Bad Losses – (112) NC State, (110) Nebraska
Notes – Clemson finds itself back on the bubble after 4 straight wins. A split this week is a must or they fall right back out of the field next week.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/13 – @Miami
2/16 – @Louisville
(112) NC State (17-7) (5-6) Projected Seed 12
NCAA.Net ranking : 35
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – *(34) Auburn, *(45) Clemson
Bad Losses – (178) Wake Forest
Notes – NC State is going to be an interesting case-study of the Net rankings – 35 in those rankings, 112 in the RPI. I have them just in the field. They must split this week with Syracuse and Duke.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/13 – Syracuse
2/16 – @Duke
Bubble But Out
NONE
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(145) Pittsburgh (12-12) (2-9)
NCAA.Net ranking : 92
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – *(19) Louisville, *(18) Florida State
Bad Losses – *(298) Niagara, (112) NC State, (119) West Virginia, (112) NC State, *(178) Wake Forest
Notes – Pittsburgh lost 2 games this past week to Wake Forest and NC State by a total of 5 points. They are more competitive, but still learning how to close out games.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/12 – @Boston College
2/16 – Virginia Tech
(132) Notre Dame (13-11)(3-8)
NCAA.Net ranking : 102
Last 10 – (3-7)
Good Wins – *(10) Purdue
Bad Losses – (112) NC State, (135) Georgia Tech, (101) UCLA, (121) Miami
Notes – It’s so strange to see Notre Dame near the bottom of the ACC standings. They did beat Georgia Tech Sunday, but playing at Virginia is a near certain loss.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/16 – @Virginia
(130) Boston College (11-11) (2-8)
NCAA.Net ranking : 136
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – *(47) Minnesota, *(18) Florida State
Bad Losses – *(207) IUPUI, *(176) Hartford, (132) Notre Dame, (132) Notre Dame
Notes – It’s time to start talking about replacements for head coach Jim Christian. He’s been at BC for 4 full years, and hasn’t ever made the NCAA tournament – make it 5 after this season.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/12 – Pittsburgh
2/17 – Miami
(135) Georgia Tech (11-13) (3-8)
NCAA.Net ranking : 109
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – (62) Arkansas, *(39) Syracuse
Bad Losses – *(187) Gardner-Webb, (141) Georgia, (125) Northwestern, (132) Notre Dame
Notes – Not one person thinks the Georgia Tech program is in better shape than when Josh Pastner arrived three years ago.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/10 – @Notre Dame
2/13 – @Virginia Tech
2/16 – Florida State
(121) Miami (10-13) (2-9)
NCAA.Net ranking : 88
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – (99) Fresno State
Bad Losses – (142) Rutgers, (112) NC State
Notes – Miami nearly knocked off UNC this past week. Close losses have been the story of Miami’s season.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/13 – Clemson
2/17 – @Boston College
(178) Wake Forest (9-13) (2-8)
NCAA.Net ranking : 196
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – *(44) Davidson
Bad Losses – *(297) Houston Baptist, *(259) Richmond, (187) Gardner-Webb, (169) St. Joseph’s, (135) Georgia Tech, (121) Miami, (130) Boston College
Notes – Wake Forest went 1-0 this week with a win over Pittsburgh! The losing resumes this week.
2/13 – @Florida State
2/16 – UNC
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