NCAA Tournament Projections for each ACC team – January 27, 2019

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com and I will also list the NCAA.net Rankings which is the new ranking system used by the committee.

Locks

(6) Virginia (18-1) (6-1) Projected Seed 1 

NCAA.Net ranking : 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – *(31) Wisconsin, *(29) VCU, *(22) Maryland, (71) Dayton, (67) Marshall, *(21) Florida State, (55) Clemson, *(27) Virginia Tech, (91) South Carolina

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Except for the loss at Duke a couple of weeks ago, Virginia is mowing down everything in their path. A game at NC State this week could test them.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – @NC State

2/2 – Miami

(2) Duke (17-2) (6-1) Projected Seed 1

NCAA.Net ranking : 4

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – *(32) Auburn, (59) Indiana, *(28) Texas Tech, *(9) Kentucky, (40) Yale, (55) Clemson, *(21) Florida State, (94) Pittsburgh, *(6) Virginia, (83) Princeton

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Georgia Tech gave Duke more of a game that many expected, but Tre Jones is back and that should help Duke overall. Duke should go 2-0 this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/28 – @Notre Dame

2/2 – St. Johns

(10) North Carolina (15-4) (5-1) Projected Seed 3

NCAA.Net ranking : 9

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – *(39) Davidson, *(44) Wofford, * (13) Gonzaga, (76) UCLA, (94) Pittsburgh, *(27) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – UNC looked good in a blowout of Virginia Tech. The week ahead is not easy. At Georgia Tech is a trap game, and Louisville is playing as well as anyone in the conference not named Virginia or Duke.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – @Georgia Tech

2/2 – @Louisville

 (12) Louisville (15-5) (6-1) Projected Seed 4

NCAA.Net ranking : 11

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  *(3) Michigan State, (60) Vermont, (58) Lipscomb, *(43) Seton Hall, *(10) UNC, (88) Kent State, (94) Pittsburgh

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Chris Mack may be the early front runner for ACC COY.  They head to Wake Forest then host UNC in a huge game.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/30 – @Wake Forest

2/2 – UNC

(27) Virginia Tech (16-3) (5-2) Projected Seed 5

NCAA.Net ranking : 10

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins –  * (16) Purdue,  * (25) Washington, (97) Northeastern, *(50) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (120) Penn State

Notes – Virginia Tech is a very good team, but they are just notch below the top 4 teams in the ACC. They need to take care of the schoos they are supposed to beat. That can’t overlook a game at Miami, and at NC State will be tough.

1/30 – @Miami

2/2 – @NC State

(50) Syracuse (14-6) (5-2) Projected Seed 9

NCAA.Net ranking : 49

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  (52) Ohio State, (55) Clemson, *(2) Duke, (94) Pittsburgh, (94) Northeastern

Bad Losses – (100) Oregon, (144) Connecticut, (124) Old Dominion, (142) Georgia Tech

Notes – Syracuse has too many bad losses to moved them above the 8/9 line. A loss at Boston College or Pittsburgh could send them back towards the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/30 – @Boston College

2/2 – @Pittsburgh

(21) Florida State (14-5) (3-4) Projected Seed 9

NCAA.Net ranking : 35

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – * (16) Purdue, * (8)  LSU, (78) St. Louis, (71) Florida, (55) Clemson

Bad Losses – (103) Boston College

Notes – I’d like to see FSU get back to .500 in the ACC before moving them past the 8/9 game. This is team is too talented to have been on the bubble last week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/2 – Georgia Tech

(106) NC State (16-4) (4-3) Projected Seed 10

NCAA.Net ranking : 30

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  *(32) Auburn, (94) Pittsburgh, (55) Clemson

Bad Losses – (174) Wake Forest

Notes – NC State escaped crushing loss to Clemson with a buzzer beating game winning 3. That keeps NC State on the right side of the bubble. It’s a must they split with Virginia and Virginia Tech at home this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – Virginia

2/2 – Virginia Tech

Bubble But In

NONE

Bubble But Out 

NONE

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(55) Clemson (11-8) (1-5)

NCAA.Net ranking : 59

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (72) Radford, (58) Libscomb, (91) South Carolina

Bad Losses – (106) NC State

Notes – Clemson is now just finding ways to lose games. They blew a 6 point lead with less than 30 seconds at NC State. It is an absolute must they beat both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest at home to have any chance at getting back towards the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – Pittsburgh

2/3 – Wake Forest

(94) Pittsburgh (12-8) (2-5)

NCAA.Net ranking : 61

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (78) Saint Louis, *(12) Louisville, *(21) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(300) Niagara, (106) NC State, (116) West Virginia

Notes – Jeff Capel has improved Pittsburgh, but now the roster limitations are starting to show up. They have lost 4 of their last 5.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – @Clemson

2/2 – Syracuse

(150) Notre Dame (11-9)(1-6) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 91

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins –  *(16) Purdue

Bad Losses – (106) NC State, (142) Georgia Tech

Notes – It’s strange to see a Mike Brey coached team be this bad, but the Irish are. They could easily be 1-8 in the ACC after this week.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/28 – Duke

2/2 – @Boston College

(103) Boston College (11-7) (2-4)

NCAA.Net ranking : 120

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – *(35) Minnesota, *(21) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(191) IUPUI, *(193) Hartford, *(150) Notre Dame

Notes – Of the lower level ACC teams, Boston College may have the best chance to get back into the NCAA discussion. If they sweep Syracuse and Notre Dame this week, they’ll at least be able to see the bubble. They are getting healthy too.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/30 – Syracuse

2/2 – Notre Dame

(142) Georgia Tech (11-9) (3-4)

NCAA.Net ranking : 90

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  (80) Arkansas, *(50) Syracuse

Bad Losses – *(199) Gardner-Webb, (122) Georgia

Notes – Georgia Tech’s defense has been very good at times this year. There’s just not enough talent to make a real run at the NCAAs, but I believe they have a couple ACC upsets left in them. UNC needs to watch out when they head to Atlanta.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/29 – UNC

2/2 – Florida State

(139) Miami (9-9) (1-5)

NCAA.Net ranking : 103

Last 10 – (4-6 )

Good Wins –  (90) Fresno State

Bad Losses – (126) Rutgers, *(101) Penn, (106) NC State

Notes – Would it be that surprising if Miami beat Florida State or Virginia Tech at home? I don’t think so.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

1/27 – Florida State

1/30 – Virginia Tech

2/2 – @Virginia

(174) Wake Forest (8-11) (1-6) 

NCAA.Net ranking : 185

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  *(39) Davidson

Bad Losses – (303) Houston Baptist, *(276) Richmond, (199) Gardner-Webb, (160) St. Joseph’s, (142) Georgia Tech, (139) Miami, (103) Boston College

Notes – Wake Forest has 7 losses to teams with an RPI of higher than 100. That’s why Danny Manning is on the hotseat.

1/30 – Louisville

2/3 – @Clemson

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