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ACC Question Of The Week: After the blowout loss to LSU, is Miami headed for a season of disappointment?
Disappointment. The word is connected to the expectations human beings have for themselves or others. It is also connected to discussions about whether expectations are reasonable or inflated.
This is therefore a complicated discussion.
One of my rules for college football analysis, as someone who has written about the sport in a professional capacity since 2001: Wait until after Week 1 to attach weight and depth to predictions and opinions, and even then, allow for the possibility that teams will transform themselves after Week 1 duds… because they sometimes do.
Did you think a lot more highly of Miami before Sunday night’s disaster in Texas? You probably did, as did I. However, expectations are fragile organisms, and in college football, programs at various stages of development and evolution must wrestle with expectations in very particular ways.
What has to be said about Miami is that as great as the 2017 season was, the Hurricanes had not solidified themselves as a fully-cemented annual superpower. They had not reclaimed that ground. The POSSIBILITY of that renewal was much greater, but it had not yet come to fruition.
Ohio State, in 2004 under Jim Tressel or in 2013 under Urban Meyer, had established itself as a program that would win a lot of games each season. Stringing together great seasons stamps a program as a juggernaut and creates the “reload, not rebuild” dynamic which currently exists at a handful of programs, maybe a few more.
Miami wants to be there, but the Canes are not yet there. As a result, the notion of a “disappointing season” requires precise contextual awareness. If you expected Miami, based on its current level of talent, to make a New Year’s Six bowl game this season, you will indeed be in for a disappointing year after the LSU loss. The calculus is simply nasty for Miami right now: The Canes will have a hard time beating Clemson if they manage to win the ACC Coastal title. Assuming a loss in that game if it even happens, Miami will have two losses this season. Miami would need to run the table until early December in Charlotte if it wants to make a New Year’s Six bowl. Carrying three losses into the bowl selection show would very likely leave The U on the outside looking in. It wouldn’t be impossible to make it, but it wouldn’t be likely. Miami will probably have to win the ACC title to reach an NY6 showcase.
That could certainly be viewed as disappointing.
However, if you watched the LSU game, you might have found it hard to believe that Miami has the talent worthy of an NY6 team.
Bluntly put, an offense which often stumbled last year — and needed the defense to get timely turnovers to win a number of close games — had to be much better this season just to maintain Miami’s place in college football. Instead, it looked worse than in 2017. That’s very bad news. Miami has the look of an 8-4 team, 9-3 at best, based on this game. Maybe the offense will come alive, but Malik Rosier inspires little confidence.
So, what is a disappointing season in light of Sunday’s game? To me, if Miami can go 9-3 and win the Coastal (and then lose a fourth game against Clemson in Charlotte), that would be a satisfying season under the imperfect circumstances the Hurricanes must deal with. That would represent this team’s ceiling. It would mean that Miami will have managed to beat either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech on the road. It MIGHT mean a two-game winning streak over Florida State, though that is hard to say. Winning the Coastal, though, would have to involve a win over one of the two Techs, and given the limitations of this offense, that would be fairly impressive.
If this team falls to 8-4, yes, that would be a disappointment. 7-5 would be a disaster. 9-3 with a division title? That is a realistic goal and not a disappointment from where I sit.
Where you sit is up to you to decide.
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