By the Numbers:
The University of Miami returns the following, according to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC ):
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (67th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 70% (45th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 69% (48th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Mark Richt (19-7 at Miami, 164-58 All Time)
Trust the Process:
I’ll be using a standard format across all Chop’s Takes:
- I’ll take a look at the above returning production (keeping in mind the evaluation of talent applicable to each ACC Program) and compare to each team they face on their schedule.
- I’ll look at the opponent faced the week before, that game’s final score, and days passed before the current game being evaluated.
- I’ll take a look at the opponent the ACC team faces after the present game, considering look-ahead games and rivalries, and days separating that game from the present.
- I’ll weigh advantages of home versus away games for each game.
- Where possible, I’ll take into consideration potential weather considerations (not Hurricanes or other natural disasters but rather seasonal conditions).
University of Miami 2018 Football Schedule:
LSU (September 2nd, 2018 Sunday Night at Arlington, TX)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 39% (124th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 57% (90th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 48% (122nd in FBS)
- Head Coach: Ed Orgeron (15-6 at LSU, 31-33 All Time)
- Previous Game: N/A
- Following Game: SE LA (9/8/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
My God, I’m going to have to talk about the University of Miami in a positive light. Believe me, easier said than done. Seriously, though, Canes fans: you’re in good hands. LSU doesn’t return the depth necessary to compete against the U this season. Miami is now recruiting at a level on-par, if not better, than LSU. Miami has leaders, talent, and depth on both sides of the ball. LSU has talent, but not depth or leadership. Plus, Mark Richt is simply a better coach than Ed Orgeron. The field advantage might favor LSU (although I’m confident Canes will travel), but the natives of Baton Rouge are in for a rude awakening this opener.
Savannah State (September 8th, 2018 at home)
- Head Coach: Erik Raeburn (6-15 at Savannah State, 141-54 All Time)
- Previous Game: UAB (8/30/18)
- Following Game: FAMU (9/22/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
I’ll keep this brief: ACC teams SHOULD win their FCS match-ups. Miami is at home against a vastly inferior opponent. Miami should win this. Next.
Toledo (September 15th, 2018 away)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 54% (100th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 62% (76th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 58% (100th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Jason Candle (21-7 at Toledo & All Time)
- Previous Game: VMI (9/1/18)
- Following Game: Nevada (9/22/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
Miami simply has too-much talent and returning veterans for Toledo to even truly compete. Even if the game is played at Toledo, I don’t see how Miami can lose this game. Superior talent. Superior depth. Superior leadership. Superior coaching.
FIU (September 22nd, 2018 at home)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 50% (107th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 37% (128th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 43% (126th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Butch Davis (8-5 at FIU, 95-83 All Time)
- Previous Game: UMass (9/15/18)
- Following Game: AR-Pine Bluff (9/29/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
Miami simply has too-much talent and returning veterans for FIU to even truly compete. I don’t see how Miami can lose this game. Superior talent. Superior depth. Superior leadership. Superior coaching. Home-field advantage.
North Carolina (September 27th, 2018 Thursday Night at home)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 77% (33rd in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 70% (46th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 73% (30th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Larry Fedora (43-34 at UNC, 77-53 All Time)
- Previous Game: Pittsburgh (9/22/18)
- Following Game: Virginia Tech (10/13/18)
Prediction: Miami LOSS
Oh man, Miami was caught looking-ahead! FSU is coming to town next weekend, and Miami will be prepping for the newly forged Noles as a sneaky-good UNC team makes their way to town. The result? UNC catches Miami unawares. The game will be close: Miami has more raw talent and similar talent returning, leadership isn’t the question. Neither is coaching, Mark Richt is phenomenal when compared to Larry Fedora. But Larry will lead this team in a nasty slug fest against Miami, with the victors being the Tar Heels.
Florida State (October 6th, 2018 at home)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (41st in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 46% (120th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 60% (93rd in FBS)
- Head Coach: Willie Taggart (0-0 at FSU, 47-50 All Time)
- Rivalry Game
- Previous Game: Louisville (9/29/18)
- Following Game: Wake Forest (10/20/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
That look-ahead will be worth-it for the Canes. I expect Miami to win the game in Coral Gables this season. I expect FSU has at least a season to completely change it’s toxic culture. This will result in superior talent losing to a slightly less talented (but more experienced) Miami squad. I won’t keep this long, it’s much too painful as a Nole to fixate on. But yes: Miami will win this one in 2018.
Virginia (October 13th, 2018 away)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 50% (106th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 72% (41st in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 61% (90th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (8-17 at UVA, 107-60 All-time)
- Previous Game: NC State (9/29/18)
- Following Game: Duke (10/20/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
Miami is soaring after their cathartic win over the Noles for the second straight year, the cross-hairs now rest squarely on Virginia. With a bye nearing, Miami doesn’t have much reason to lose this game. Virginia, meanwhile, is coming off it’s own bye but lacking the guns to really compete against a surging Miami team. It also might be looking to preserve what it can of it’s season. Virginia is improving under Bronco, but has a few years still to go.
Boston College (October 26th, 2018 Friday Night away)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 81% (23rd in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 65% (61st in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 73% (31st in FBS)
- Head Coach: Steve Addazio (31-33 at Boston College, 44-44 All Time)
- Previous Game: Louisville (10/13/18)
- Following Game: Virginia Tech (11/3/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
Back to the grin, Miami will topple the Eagles in Boston on a Friday Night. Weird things happen in Boston on Fridays, but sheer talent alone will prevail for the Hurricanes. I don’t have too much to say here either, Miami fans. You’ve got a great team in 2018, at least I think. Boston College has depth, but so does Miami (and superior talent at that). Mark Richt is also the better coach between the two. I don’t see this going Boston College’s way.
Duke (November 3rd, 2018 at home)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 82% (20th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 78% (25th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning 80% (11th in FBS)
- Head Coach: David Cutcliff (59-67 at Duke, 103-96 All Time)
- Previous Game: Pitt (10/27/18)
- Following Game: UNC (11/10/18) [Rivalry]
Prediction: Miami WIN
Duke has a look-ahead game in UNC, plus they also are playing in Miami. Despite the returning talent that Duke fields, I don’t see this ending well for the Blue Devils. Miami simply out talents the Devils, with similar levels of returning leadership.
Georgia Tech (November 10th, 2018 away)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 66% (72nd in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 52% (108th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 59% (98th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Paul Johnson (75-54 at Georgia Tech, 182-93 All Time)
- Previous Game: North Carolina (11/3/18)
- Following Game: Virginia (11/17/18)
Prediction: Miami WIN
Is there no stopping this Miami team? They win nearly every game they play in. Now, Miami simply out-talents Georgia Tech, and returns more production. Miami is also playing for the Coastal Division. They’ve a mission, and that’s to make it to the College Football Playoff. At this rate, in my eyes, I don’t see much stopping the Hurricanes…
Virginia Tech (November 17th, 2018 away)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (65th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 64% (67th in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 66% (62nd in FBS)
- Head Coach: Justin Fuente (19-8 at VT, 45-31 All Time)
- Rivalry
- Previous Game: Pitt (11/10/18)
- Following Game: UVA (11/23/18) [Rivalry]
Prediction: Miami LOSS
Queue “Enter Sandman”. Never discount your Conference rivals. Blacksburg is always a challenge to play, and the Hokies will be competing for the Coastal against their Conference Nemesis. Miami, riding high up to this point, I expect will slip and be upset by Virginia Tech. Justin Fuente has Virginia Tech firing on all cylinders, and can compete with the best in their division. Similar levels of talent, this game comes down to the field advantage.
Pittsburgh (November 24th, 2018 at home)
- Percentage of Offense Returning: 60% (84th in FBS)
- Percentage of Defense Returning: 75% (33rd in FBS)
- Percentage of Total Returning: 67% (57th in FBS)
- Head Coach: Pat Narduzzi (21-17 at Pitt/All Time)
- Previous Game: Wake Forest (11/17/18)
- Following Game: N/A
Prediction: Miami WIN
I don’t see a repeat of 2017. Miami knows it is on thin ice if it loses this game to Pitt. They’ll win at home to close the season against Pitt, a team on the rise (and yet still far from their lofty-goals). Miami has the leadership and talent to thoroughly beat Pitt on their home field. I’d expect they do so to close the season.
My Predicted 2018 Regular Season Record for Miami: 10-2 (6-2 ACC)
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