By the Numbers:

Louisville returns the following, according to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC ):

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 54% (102nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 38% (127th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 46% (124th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (75-27 at Louisville, 120-58 All Time)

Trust the Process:

I’ll be using a standard format across all Chop’s Takes:

1. I’ll take a look at the above returning production (keeping in mind the evaluation of talent applicable to each ACC Program) and compare to each team they face on their schedule.
2. I’ll look at the opponent faced the week before, that game’s final score, and days passed before the current game being evaluated.
3. I’ll take a look at the opponent the ACC team faces after the present game, considering look-ahead games and rivalries, and days separating that game from the present.
4. I’ll weigh advantages of home versus away games for each game.
5. Where possible, I’ll take into consideration potential weather considerations (not Hurricanes or other natural disasters but rather seasonal conditions).

Louisville 2018 Football Schedule:

Alabama (September 1st, 2018 in Orlando)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 62% (81st in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 53% (102nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 58% (103rd in FBS)
• Head Coach: Nick Saban (127-20 at Alabama, 233-79-1 All Time)
• Previous Game:N/A
• Following Game: Arkansas State (9/8/18)

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

Oh no, the flashbacks! Seriously, I feel for Louisville. Louisville will begin the year with a raw Quarterback at the helm, and losses on both sides of the ball. While Alabama has the same problem, Alabama recruits unlike any other in the College Football landscape. Nick Saban is a legend, and is notorious for his opening kick-off reputation (hint, he’s undefeated at Alabama in the season opener). Alabama will be entirely fixated on Louisville, and their fan base travels (their fans will be in much closer proximity to Orlando than Louisville fans). Unlike last season, where FSU kept the game close until special-team blunders, I foresee a bloodbath for Louisville. Survive this one, Louisville, and live to fight another day.

Indiana State (September 8th, 2018 at home)

• Head Coach: Curt Mallory (0-11 at Indiana State & All Time)
• Previous Game:Quincy (8/30/18)
• Following Game: Eastern IL (9/15/18)

Prediction: Louisville WIN

I’ll keep this brief: ACC teams SHOULD win their FCS match-ups. Louisville is at home against a vastly inferior opponent. Louisville should win this. Next.

Western Kentucky (September 15th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 47% (110th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 69% (50th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 58% (101st in FBS)
• Head Coach: Mike Sanford Jr (6-7 at WKU & All Time)
• Previous Game: Maine (9/8/18)
• Following Game: Ball State (9/22/18)

Prediction: Louisville WIN

Louisville is off to a pretty good start. While losing to Alabama, Western Kentucky and Indiana State serve as ideal appetizers before hitting ACC play. Especially considering the raw talent at Louisville, some gimme games make for a good introduction to the season. If not too banged-up from Alabama, I don’t see any problems here for Louisville.

Virginia (September 22nd, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 50% (106th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 72% (41st in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 61% (90th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (8-17 at UVA, 107-60 All-time)
• Previous Game: Ohio (9/15/18)
• Following Game: NC State (9/29/18)

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

The second loss of the season for Louisville I anticipate will come at the hands of the Cavaliers. Mind you, Louisville can keep this close and might win. However, Virginia is playing at home, and will take Louisville seriously in conference play. Virginia also returns just enough talent (as opposed to Louisville) that they can compete on the field. The home-field advantage is what sways me to Virginia winning a close one.

Florida State (September 29th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (41st in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 46% (120th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 60% (93rd in FBS)
• Head Coach: Willie Taggart (0-0 at FSU, 47-50 All Time)
• Previous Game: Northern Illinois (9/22/18)
• Following Game: University of Miami (10/6/18) [rivalry]

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

Another slip-up for Louisville. Now, FSU might be looking ahead to Miami. FSU might also be seeking revenge for two-straight losses to Louisville. This will not be a repeat of 2016. This will also not be a close-loss situation much like 2017, where FSU was (for all intents & purposes) to be the victor (until a freshman Blackman fumbled and Lamar Jackson did what he does best). FSU was a lost team after the Alabama loss in 2017, with a Head Coach half-way out the door and a staff in chaos, it was the sheer willpower of the team that saw them make a miracle-run to just be bowl eligible. While it typically takes more than a season to change a culture, Willie has the Seminoles heading in the right direction, and that’ll be solidified with a resounding win over Louisville at Louisville, exorcising the ghosts of FSU past with their last two losses to the Cardinals. Sorry Louisville. Not sorry. Go Noles!

Georgia Tech (October 5th, 2018 Friday Night at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 66% (72nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 52% (108th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 59% (98th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Paul Johnson (75-54 at Georgia Tech, 182-93 All Time)
• Previous Game: Bowling Green (9/29/18)
• Following Game: Duke (10/13/18)

Prediction: Louisville WIN

Just the game Louisville needed. Friday night under the lights, Louisville will be hungry, and in desperate need of a win. They’ll get just that to keep their season in-line. Win three games, and Louisville is bowling! This will be tough-fought, but Louisville will get theirs.

Boston College (October 13th, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 81% (23rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 65% (61st in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 73% (31st in FBS)
• Head Coach: Steve Addazio (31-33 at Boston College, 44-44 All Time)
• Previous Game: NC State (10/6/18)
• Following Game: Miami (10/26/18 Friday Night)

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

Ouch, Louisville, just when things were seemingly on the rise. Granted, Boston College I believe is a program on the rise. Louisville should have more talent on the field, however it is the veterans that Boston College returns (and the game in Chestnut Hill) that turns the tide to BC’s favor.

Wake Forest (October 27th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (43rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 69% (49th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 72% (37th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dave Clawson (21-29 at Wake Forest, 111-109 All Time)
• Previous Game: Florida State (10/20/18)
• Following Game: Syracuse (11/3/18)

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

Wake Forest is the type of team that, when playing in Louisville, I’d want to throw a bone to Louisville. But man-oh-man does Wake return talent this season! Not that Louisville doesn’t have talent (their on-field product is better). But Wake brings back vets. And Wake has Clawson, the up-and-comer that is turning the program around. Wake has played Louisville close recently. Wake is a team that plays many teams close. This is due to Defensive performance. This season, Wake returns a lot on both sides of the ball. I see Wake upsetting some teams in the Atlantic this season. I see them upsetting Louisville here.

Clemson (November 3rd, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 73% (45th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 75% (32nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 74% (28th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (101-30 at Clemson & All Time)
• Previous Game: Florida State (10/27/18) [Rivalry]
• Following Game: Boston College (11/17/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

It’s almost laughable how good Clemson is going to be in 2018. Nestled between two rivalry games, you’d think Louisville might stand a chance. But not in Death Valley. Not against this Clemson team. By the numbers, Louisville is toast.

Syracuse (November 9th, 2018 Friday Night away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 59% (86th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 68% (53rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 63% (75th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dino Babers (8-16 at Syracuse, 45-32 All Time)
• Previous Game: Wake Forest (11/3/18)
• Following Game: Notre Dame (11/17/18)

Prediction: Louisville LOSS

I’m sorry Cardinal nation, this season will be one to forget. Louisville has an extremely tough stretch. Louisville is going to be banged-up. Their talent is young. While they’ll mature at this point, injuries will likely be set in-place on the roster. While the same can be said for Syracuse, they simply return enough talent to compete against Louisville. The game is a Friday night game at Syracuse. The dome can get loud. Ask Clemson in 2017. Dino Babers has the Orange on the right path. The moment will be too-bright for Louisville. But that doesn’t mean they now can’t play spoiler to other programs.

NC State (November 17th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 70% (56th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 35% (129th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 53% (112th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dave Doeren (34-30 at NC State, 57-34 All Time)
• Previous Game: Wake Forest (11/8/18) [Rivalry]
• Following Game: UNC (11/24/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Louisville WIN

Just in time to vitalize the season and give hope for next, Louisville will play spoiler for NC State. Nestled between two rivalry games, NC State is in a similar boat as Louisville. The talent that Louisville fields is slightly-better than NC State, and they’re playing at Louisville. While NC State returns much offensive production, it won’t be enough to off-set the shoot-out that I anticipate. Louisville will now want to ruin seasons. I see them doing so, to an extent, for the Wolfpack.

Kentucky (November 24th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 47% (109th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 90% (7th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 69% (50th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Mark Stoops (26-36 at Kentucky & All Time)
• Rivalry
• Previous Game: Middle Tennessee (11/17/18)
• Following Game: N/A

Prediction: Louisville WIN

What the heck? Looking at the numbers, y’all might expect me to pick Kentucky to win. While playing at Louisville, it’s not like Kentucky fans WON’T travel. They likely will. This is a rivalry, after all. But Kentucky has a poor offensive output this season. Louisville fields better talent. While Kentucky will have leaders on Defense, returning 90% of starters on Defense as an SEC East bottom-feeder program tells me that their Defense might not be all that it appears. Despite veteran leadership, I expect a low-scoring slug fest for both programs in Louisville. Louisville is out to play spoiler. They just might against the Wildcats.

My Predicted 2018 Regular Season Record for Louisville: 5-7 (2-6 ACC)

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