Duke Football Schedule in 2018

By the Numbers:

Duke returns the following, according to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC ):

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 82% (20th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 78% (25th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning 80% (11th in FBS)
• Head Coach: David Cutcliff (59-67 at Duke, 103-96 All Time)

Trust the Process:

I’ll be using a standard format across all Chop’s Takes:

1. I’ll take a look at the above returning production (keeping in mind the evaluation of talent applicable to each ACC Program) and compare to each team they face on their schedule.
2. I’ll look at the opponent faced the week before, that game’s final score, and days passed before the current game being evaluated.
3. I’ll take a look at the opponent the ACC team faces after the present game, considering look-ahead games and rivalries, and days separating that game from the present.
4. I’ll weigh advantages of home versus away games for each game.
5. Where possible, I’ll take into consideration potential weather considerations (not Hurricanes or other natural disasters but rather seasonal conditions).

Duke 2018 Football Schedule:

Army (September 1st, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 42% (121st in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 74% (38th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 58% (102nd in FBS)
• Head Coach: Jeff Monken (24-26 at Army, 62-42 All Time)
• Previous Game: N/A
• Following Game: Liberty (9/8/18)

Prediction: Duke WIN

In their home opened, Army won’t stand a chance. With less returning talent (and less talented athletes) coupled with a less experienced head coach, Duke should easily snag a win.

Northwestern (September 8th, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 67% (68th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 61% (79th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 64% (72nd in FBS)
• Head Coach: Patt Fitzgerald (87-65 at Northwestern/All-Time)
• Previous Game: Purdue (8/30/18)
• Following Game: Akron (9/15/18)

Prediction: Duke WIN

Duke fields more returning starters and a team that should be, from a talent perspective, on equal footing as Northwestern. I believe David Cutcliff is on a similar coaching sphere as Patt Fitzgerald, and while this is away, I do believe Duke can out-talent Northwestern on their own field.

Baylor (September 15th, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 93% (2nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 82% (17th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 88% (4th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Matt Rhule (1-11 at Baylor, 29-34 All Time)
• Previous Game: UTSA (9/8/18)
• Following Game: Kansas (9/22/18)

Prediction: Duke LOSS

Ouch, Duke. This might be giving too-much credit to Baylor. I’m expecting a similarly talented team to return as Duke, however Baylor is returning more. This will also be played at Baylor. Matt Rhule isn’t as experienced as David Cutcliff, in my opinion. But it won’t matter much here.

North Carolina Central (September 22nd, 2018 at home)

• Head Coach: Jerry Mack
• Previous Game: TBD
• Following Game: TBD

Prediction: Duke WIN

I’ll keep this brief: ACC teams SHOULD win their FCS match-ups. Duke is at home against a vastly inferior opponent. Duke should win this. Next.

Virginia Tech (September 29th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (65th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 64% (67th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 66% (62nd in FBS)
• Head Coach: Justin Fuente (19-8 at VT, 45-31 All Time)
• Previous Game: Old Dominion (9/22/18)
• Following Game: Notre Dame (10/6/18)

Prediction: Duke WIN

A BOLD prediction, I believe Duke catches VT off-guard and seals the deal with a win over the Hokies on September 29th of 2018! Justin Fuente is, without a doubt, one of the rising stars in the College Football landscape. I believe he has Virginia Tech on the right path towards building the program up as a national brand (they already are, but are now being elevated as a preeminent program under Fuente). However, I don’t like where this game sits for the Hokies. They return less than Duke (albeit more talented athletes than Duke certainly). But with a look-ahead at the Notre Dame game, Virginia Tech might find themselves in a fight at Duke. I fully expect this, and project that Duke will pull the upset.

Georgia Tech (October 13th, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 66% (72nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 52% (108th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 59% (98th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Paul Johnson (75-54 at Georgia Tech, 182-93 All Time)
• Previous Game: Louisville (10/5/18 Friday night)
• Following Game: VT (10/25/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Duke WIN

Coming off of a Bye, Duke should be well equipped to take-on Georgia Tech, who themselves are coming off of a game at Louisville. Duke returns more talent (on equal footing with caliber of athletes), and while I believe Paul Johnson and his triple-option offense might prove problematic to most teams, I don’t believe they have the guns to actually beat Duke at this stage.

Virginia (October 20th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 50% (106th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 72% (41st in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 61% (90th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall (8-17 at UVA, 107-60 All-time)
• Previous Game: Miami (10/13/18)
• Following Game: UNC (10/27/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Duke WIN

With a look-ahead game for Virginia against UNC (their rival), and this tough Duke team, playing at Duke, I don’t see much chance for Virginia here to overcome the roster inexperience versus a more veteran Duke team. Their previous game is against Miami, which doesn’t help Virginia here either.

Pittsburgh (October 27th, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 60% (84th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 75% (33rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 67% (57th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Pat Narduzzi (21-17 at Pitt/All Time)
• Previous Game: Notre Dame (10/13/18) [Rivalry]
• Following Game: Virginia (11/2/18)

Prediction: Duke LOSS

I’ve got a funny feeling about this game, and it primarily has everything to do with where the game sits on Duke’s schedule. Duke is going to be looking-ahead to the Miami game. Pitt is coming off of a bye week, having faced Notre Dame their rival. While I expect Pitt to lose to Notre Dame, I also expect Pitt to be fired-up to be playing at home, wanting to make a statement after the loss. I think Pitt will catch Duke off-guard, despite the similar talent level and fewer returning veterans. We’ve seen Pat Narduzzi do this before (vs Miami 2017). I can see it happening here.

Miami (November 3rd, 2018 away)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 68% (67th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 70% (45th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 69% (48th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Mark Richt (19-7 at Miami, 164-58 All Time)
• Previous Game: Boston College (10/26/18)
• Following Game: Georgia Tech (11/10/18)

Prediction: Duke LOSS

UNC is the team that Duke is facing next week, and despite preparations to account for Miami, they’re just too-talented of a program at this stage for Duke to pull another upset with a rival on the horizon. The game is being played at Miami, and despite less returning talent from Miami, they do have the superior athletes (and recruits) compared to Duke. I also believe that Mark Richt is a better coach than David Cutcliff, and can maneuver against a talented Duke team. Duke takes another loss on the season.

North Carolina (November 10th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 77% (33rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 70% (46th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 73% (30th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Larry Fedora (43-34 at UNC, 77-53 All Time)
• Rivalry
• Previous Game:  Georgia Tech (11/3/18)
• Following Game: Western Carolina (11/17/18)

Prediction: Duke WIN

This one will be a battle. Duke is reeling after two straight losses. However Duke has been preparing for their hated UNC rivals. While Duke might be preparing some for Clemson, UNC will be their focus in preparations. The similar returning talent (and on field talent) will face-off, and with both programs being beaten-up the weeks previous, I anticipate a classic. The home team wins. This season: that team is Duke.

 Clemson (November 17th, 2018 away )

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 73% (45th in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 75% (32nd in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 74% (28th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (101-30 at Clemson/All Time)
• Previous Game: Boston College (11/10/18)
• Following Game: South Carlina (11/24/18) [Rivalry]

Prediction: Duke LOSS

After a hard-fought win against UNC, Duke travels to Death Valley. Duke might be able to put up a good fight here, however I’m not holding onto much hope against this Clemson team, especially where this program is at this time. Sorry Duke. Let alone Duke is preparing for rival Wake Forest the following weekend.

 Wake Forest (November 24th, 2018 at home)

• Percentage of Offense Returning: 74% (43rd in FBS)
• Percentage of Defense Returning: 69% (49th in FBS)
• Percentage of Total Returning: 72% (37th in FBS)
• Head Coach: Dave Clawson (21-29 at Wake Forest, 111-109 All Time)
• Rivalry
• Previous Game: Pitt (11/17/18)
• Following Game: N/A

Prediction: Duke WIN

This game will be close. I’m nearly tempted to pull the trigger on the upset from Wake Forest. However, the talent both programs will field is similar in what it returns and who is playing. The coaching is on-par as well. Sure, Duke is beaten-up by Clemson the week before. But the home advantage kicks in for Duke, who barely squeaks by Wake Forest in the season finale.

My Predicted 2018 Regular Season Record for Duke: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)