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Feb
15
2018

ACC Bubble Analysis for February 15, 2018

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(1) Virginia (24-2) (13-1) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – * (5) Rhode Island, (79) Boston College, * (8) UNC, * (50) Syracuse, (57) Virginia Tech, (60) NC State, * (7) Duke,  * (6) Clemson, (40) Louisville, * (50) Syracuse, * (30) Miami, * (37) Florida State (77) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Virginia took a surprising loss at home to Virginia Tech, but also picked up 2 solid road wins at FSU and Miami. They are a strong one seed.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/21 – Georgia Tech

(7) Duke (21-5) (7-3) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (15) Michigan State, (55) Texas, (54) Florida, * (37) Florida State, * (30) Miami, (72) Notre Dame, (89) South Dakota, (57) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – If Duke can sweep this week, a #1 seed is back in play. They played very well against Virginia Tech.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/18 – @Clemson

2/21- Louisvillle

(6) Clemson (20-5) (9-4) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (16) Ohio State, (54) Florida, (84) South Carolina, * (48) Louisiana, * (40) Louisville (79) Boston College, (60) NC State, (96) Hofstra, * (30) Miami, (72) Notre Dame, *(8) UNC

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Clemson blew an 18 point lead at FSU, and now faces a difficult week ahead with Duke and at @Virginia Tech. They need a split to stay as a top 4 seed.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/18 – Duke

2/21 – @Virginia Tech

(8) North Carolina (20-7) (9-5) Projected Seed 3

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – * (33) Arkansas, * (38) Michigan,* (13) Tennessee, * (16) Ohio State, (79) Boston College, * (6) Clemson, (72) Notre Dame, (96) Stanford, * (7) Duke, (60) NC State, (72) Notre Dame, (91) Bucknell

Bad Losses – (139) Wofford

Notes –The Tar Heels are on a roll having won 4 straight games, but this upcoming week will be a real challenge. If they sweep, I’ll move them up to the 2 line.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – @Louisville

2/21 – @Syracuse

(30) Miami (18-7) (7-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-5 )

Good Wins –  * (26) Middle Tennessee, * (37) Florida State, * (40) Louisville, (60) NC State, (57) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – * (157) Georgia Tech

Notes – Miami lost back to back games this past week. If they lose two more this week, it’s bubble time.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – Syracuse

2/19 – @Notre Dame

(37) Florida State (18-8) (7-7) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (54) Florida * (8) UNC, * (43) Syracuse, * (30) Miami, (57) Virginia Tech, * (40) Louisville, * (6) UNC, * (50) Syracuse

Bad Losses – (124) Wake Forest

Notes – If FSU doesn’t come back and beat Clemson this past Wednesday, they would be in real trouble. They did and got a signature win. After they blow out Pittsburgh they have to keep the momentum going in 2 weeks.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/18 – Pittsburgh

(40) Louisville (18-8) (8-5) Projected Seed 8

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (37) Florida State, (72) Notre Dame, (57) Virginia Tech, (79) Boston College, (86) Southern Illinois

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Louisville really really needs to find a way to beat UNC or Duke this week. They still lack a signature win.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – UNC

2/21 – @Duke

Bubble But In

(57) Virginia Tech (18-8) (7-6) Projected Seed 10

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (43) Washington, * (8) UNC, (72) Notre Dame, (79) Boston College, * (1) Virginia, (60) NC State

Bad Losses – * (137) St. Louis

Notes – Beating Virginia got the Hokies into the dance this week. They can’t lose both this week.

2/17 – @Georgia Tech

2/21 – Clemson

(60) NC State (17-9) (6-4) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins –  * (17) Arizona, * (7) Duke, * (6) Clemson, * (8) UNC, (72) Notre Dame, * (50) Syracuse, (85) Penn State

Bad Losses – * (156) Northern Iowa

Notes – NC State got a win over fellow bubble team at Syracuse. I would say they can’t afford a loss to either Wake Forest or Boston College.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – @Wake Forest

2/20 – Boston College

Bubble But Out 

(50) Syracuse (17-9) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins –  * (35) Buffalo, (66) Maryland, (57) Virginia Tech (73) Toledo, (99) Connecticut, (79) Boston College, * (40) Louisville

Bad Losses – (124) Wake Forest, (157) Georgia Tech

Notes – You get the feeling Syracuse has run out of NCAA time. It’s looking more and more like a NIT bid.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – @Miami

2/21 – UNC

(79) Boston College (16-10) (6-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (7) Duke, * (37) Florida State, * (30) Miami

Bad Losses – None

Notes – BC kept their faint NCAA hopes alive by winning both of their games this past week. They need a sweep this week too.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – Notre Dame

2/20 – @NC State

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(72) Notre Dame (15-11)(5-8) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – * (19) Wichita State, * (50) Syracuse, (82) LSU, (60) NC State, (79) Boston College, * (37) Florida State

Bad Losses – (108) Indiana, * (157) Georgia Tech, (100) Ball State

Notes – If Notre Dame wins both of their games this, it could get them back on the bubble.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – @BC

2/19 – Miami

(124) Wake Forest (10-16) (3-11) 

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (50) Syracuse, * (37) FSU, (77) UNC-Greensboro

Bad Losses – * (252) Liberty, (141) Drake, (167) Georgia Southern

Notes – I feel like Wake Forest is playing well enough to pull off another upset or two this year.

2/17 – NC State

2/21 – @Pittsburgh

(157) Georgia Tech (11-15) (4-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins –  * (30) Miami, (72) Notre Dame, * (50) Syracuse

Bad Losses – * (221) Grambling, (139) Wofford, (114) Wright State, (124) Wake Forest

Notes – The season has turned into a disaster for Georgia Tech due to a slew of injuries and distractions. They may not win another game this year.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/17 – Virginia Tech

2/21 – @Virginia

(189) Pittsburgh (8-19) (0-14)

Last 10 – (0-10)

Good Wins –  (80) Santa Barbara

Bad Losses – * (201) Navy, (157) Georgia Tech

Notes –If Pitt doesn’t beat Wake Forest at home, they won’t win a single ACC game.

This Week’s Upcoming Games.

2/18 – @FSU

2/21 – Wake Forest

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