This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.
Locks
(1) Virginia (20-1) (9-0) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (10-0)
Good Wins – * (9) Rhode Island, (73) Boston College, * (11) UNC, * (30) Syracuse, (72) Virginia Tech, (62) NC State, (85) UNC-Greensboro, * (4) Duke, * (6) Clemson
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Virginia’s win at Duke may have proved it’s the country’s best team at the moment. The Hoos are for real, but you should have known that already.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – Louisville
2/3 – Syracuse
(4) Duke (18-3) (6-3) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – * (28) Michigan State, * (40) Texas, (75) Utah Valley, * (36) Florida, * (31) Florida State, * (16) Miami
Bad Losses – None
Notes – I’m leaving Duke as a #1 seed despite the loss to Virginia. Why? After Virginia, Villanova, and Purdue there is no clear cut 4th team. Duke is as good a choice as there is.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/29 – Notre Dame
2/3 – @St. Johns
(11) North Carolina (16-6) (5-4) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (22) Arkansas, * (38) Michigan,* (13) Tennessee, * (21) Ohio State, (73) Boston College, * (6) Clemson, (77) Notre Dame, (90) Stanford, (95) Bucknell
Bad Losses – (110) Wofford
Notes – The Tar Heels have lost two straight games, and that pushed them down the seed line. Beating Pitt this week is a given, but a loss at Clemson will drop UNC further.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/30 – @Clemson
2/3 – Pittsburgh
(6) Clemson (16-4) (5-3) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – * (21) Ohio State, * (36) Florida, (53) South Carolina, (58) Louisiana, * (20) Louisville (73) Boston College, (62) NC State, (96) Hofstra, * (16) Miami, (77) Notre Dame
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Clemson has lost 3 of their last 5 games, and without Donte Grantham for the rest of the season the Tigers may be in a bit of trouble. Clemson needs to win 2 of their next 3 games or fall towards the dreaded 8/9 line.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/28 – @Georgia Tech
1/30 – UNC
2/3 – @Wake Forest
(20) Louisville (16-5) (6-2) Projected Seed 6
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – * (31) Florida State, (77) Notre Dame, (72) Virginia Tech, (73) Boston College, (100) Southern Illinois
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Louisville is definitely a NCAA team, but they need more quality wins to move higher than a 6 seed.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – @Virginia
2/3 – FSU
(31) Florida State (16-5) (5-4) Projected Seed 7
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (36) Florida * (11) UNC, * (30) Syracuse, * (16) Miami, (72) Virginia Tech
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Florida State has won 3 games in a row. That puts them in good NCAA position. A couple of tricky road games are this week. The Noles need at worst a split.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – @Wake Forest
2/3 – @Louisville
(16) Miami (15-5) (4-4) Projected Seed 8
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (99) Minnesota, * (27) Middle Tennessee, * (31) Florida State, * (20) Louisville, (62) NC State
Bad Losses – (140) Georgia Tech
Notes – Miami is safely in the field. A sweep this week will move them off the 8/9 line.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – Pittsburgh
2/3 – @Virginia Tech
Bubble But In
(62) NC State (15-7) (5-4) Projected Seed 10
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (14) Arizona, * (4) Duke, * (6) Clemson, * (11) UNC
Bad Losses – (135) Northern Iowa
Notes – The NCAA tournament selection committee loves roads wins and NC State got two of them this week – at Pitt and then a monster win at UNC. Kevin Keatts is doing a great first year job in Raleigh.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
2/3 – Notre Dame
(72) Virginia Tech (15-6) (4-4) Projected Seed 11
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – (50) Washington, * (11) UNC, (77) Notre Dame, (84) Ole Miss
Bad Losses – * (202) St. Louis
Notes – Virginia Tech’ has been waiting for a week like this. They beat UNC and went on the road to defeat Notre Dame to get back in the field. A split this week should keep them in.
1/31 – @Boston College
2/3 – Miami
(30) Syracuse (15-6) (4-4) Projected Seed 11
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – * (25) Buffalo, (52) Maryland, (72) Virginia Tech (67) Toledo, (74) Connecticut, (73) Boston College
Bad Losses – (126) Wake Forest
Notes – It’s hard to know what to do with Syracuse. They have good computer numbers, and a decent record but only 1 top 50 RPI win against Buffalo which won’t hold up. If they could get a sweep this week, that would really help.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – @Georgia Tech
2/3 – Virginia
Bubble But Out
(77) Notre Dame (13-8)(3-5)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – * (23) Wichita State, * (30) Syracuse, (81) LSU, (62) NC State
Bad Losses – (107) Indiana, (137) Georgia Tech
Notes – 5 straight losses have dropped the Irish out the NCAAs this week. The problem is 3 of those have been at home. Notre Dame is really feeling the loss of Bonzi Colson. If they get swept this week, it might be just too much to overcome.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/29 – @Duke
2/3 – @NC State
(73) Boston College (13-8) (3-5)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – * (4) Duke, * (31) Florida State
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Boston College is better, but not NCAA worthy at the moment. This is a must sweep week with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – Virginia Tech
2/4 – Georgia Tech
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(126) Wake Forest (8-13) (1-8)
Last 10 – (1-9)
Good Wins – * (30) Syracuse, (85) UNC-Greensboro
Bad Losses – * (265) Liberty, (158) Drake, (139) Georgia Southern
Notes – Wake Forest has been reduced to the role of spoiler for this year. The Deacs have lost 7 in a row.
1/31 – FSU
2/3 – Clemson
(140) Georgia Tech (10-10) (3-4)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – * (16) Miami, (77) Notre Dame, (97) Northwestern
Bad Losses – * (256) Grambling, (110) Grambling
Notes – Georgia Tech just went through a brutal stretch of games. If there’s one last gasp at making a NCAA run, they need to win their next 3 games.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/28 – Clemson
1/31 – Syracuse
2/4 – @Boston College
(180) Pittsburgh (8-14) (0-9)
Last 10 – (1-9)
Good Wins – (83) Santa Barbara
Bad Losses – * (221) Navy, (108) Penn State, (116) Montana, (140) Georgia Tech
Notes – Kevin Stallings has destroyed this program. They’ll be 0-11 in the ACC after this week.
This Week’s Upcoming Games.
1/31 – @Miami
2/3 – @UNC
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