With both Duke and Virginia going down on Friday in the ACC Tournament, the ACC probably lost a chance at two number 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Will one of them still be a 1 seed? I feel fairly confident the answer is yes, and I’m leaning towards Duke on this one.
The resumes are fairly comparable. Virginia won the ACC regular season, by 1 game over Duke. Duke won at Virginia. The Blue Devils have a whopping 17 top 100 wins. Virginia has 14.
Virginia didn’t lose to a team outside the top 25, Duke lost to NC State and Miami. It’s tough to separate the two on paper, but here’s how I think the committee will separate them…. Justin Anderson.
With a healthy Justin Anderson, the Cavaliers are easily one of the four best teams in the country. Even with his injury, Virginia is still very good, but with a drop off.
In the ACC Tournament Anderson returned, but clearly he’s not yet playing at the level he was before he got hurt.
There is a precedent for the NCAA committee to drop a team off the 1 line due to an injury. In 2000 Cincinnati was the number 1 team in the country, but in the Conference USA Tournament, star Kenyon Martin broke his leg and the Bearcats were dropped to a 2 seed.
Arizona, Wisconsin, and Villanova are the other teams competing for the 2 other number 1 seeds. Kentucky is a lock 1 seed. and I believe Duke has done enough to retain a 1 seed. Virginia can still get a 1 seed if 2 of the 3 teams out of Arizona, Wisconsin, or Villanova lose, but I can’t see the Cavaliers jumping over any of them without help.
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