Dec
03
2022
Some seasons, I get to end the Eliminator series with a clear four Playoff teams. Some years, there’s an obvious bubble with a needed resume comparison. This year, we’re somewhere in between. First of all, the obvious. Georgia and Michigan are in. As of this writing, Georgia is at halftime of the SEC Championship Game …
Nov
27
2022
This will be a somewhat expanded introduction to the Eliminator, because there really is only one question left for the selection committee. We know that Georgia and Michigan have locked up Playoff bids. TCU is in if it wins next week, and might even be in with a loss. USC is almost certainly in with …
Nov
20
2022
With just two weeks left in the season–and one of those weeks has a limited number of games–there is now a pretty distinct number of possible outcomes this year. In certain ways, this makes The Eliminator’s job very easy. Let’s find the most chaotic scenario we can, and ask who’s left out. If we know …
Nov
13
2022
It’s somewhat of a strange year for the College Football Playoff picture. Everyone assumes that Georgia won’t lose–at least not before the SEC Championship Game and the Bulldogs certainly look like it. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan are looking at locking up a bid for the winner of The Game as long as both enter …
Nov
06
2022
Last week, I spoke about how a Notre Dame upset of Clemson could spell big trouble for the ACC. Well, Notre Dame delivered, and how. Unfortunately for the ACC, that means both Clemson and North Carolina are well behind the eight-ball in terms of having a CFP-worthy resume. Is there some good news here? Actually, …
Oct
23
2022
As we go through this week’s Eliminator, we have 24 teams still alive. Of those 24, though, less than a dozen are serious contenders. It’s looking more and more like we’re on a path to some runaway playoff teams this season. Clemson has survived its biggest challenges and looks pretty likely to finish undefeated. So …
Oct
16
2022
The Eliminator is running into a bit of a problem. We still have a fair list of contenders–29 teams remaining, and a dozen of the most serious contenders–but those serious contenders are somewhat concentrated in a few divisions. We are on the verge of seeing chaos come about if we get one–let alone two–upsets in …
Dec
05
2021
The games are down, and there are less than 12 hours of waiting for who the selection committee decides to put in the Playoff. We know three of them for sure: Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati have locked up their spots in the Playoff. Who will the fourth be? Conventional wisdom is that it will be …
Nov
28
2021
With one week left in the season, we still have nine teams left in Playoff contention. Does that number sound high to you? It shouldn’t. Let’s explain why. First of all, let’s look at the teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon. Do you think Ohio State and …
Nov
22
2021
This has, quite frankly, been the most chaotic season in the CFP’s eight-year history. Perhaps we should have expected it. After all, so many teams are more experienced, given the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. Even so, this year has been wild. Part of the wildness, however, has been the strength at the …
Oct
24
2021
With only three teams eliminated this week, it gives us space to discuss a problematic topic for the ACC: The Pitt Panthers. Pitt is quickly becoming a strong team overall. Advanced metrics like ESPN’s FPI love the Panthers. Pitt is rising in the major polls, and should approach the Top 10 with a few more …
Oct
17
2021
Last week, I mentioned how I kept Texas A&M alive until they were clearly eliminated. After all, they had Alabama up next, and that would solve things either way. The same principle applied to Purdue this week. Once again, the Boilermakers stayed alive until they picked up a third loss or until the season passed …
Oct
10
2021
Last week, I mentioned a great example of my methodology here. I never assume a team will lose a game. In fact, when I’m deciding whether to eliminate a team, I always look at what the resume could be if the team wins out. If a team runs the table and still doesn’t have a …
Oct
03
2021
Could 2021 end up as a relatively chalk-like football season? Sure. But it’s definitely not looking like it will. So what does that mean for the Eliminator? Well, for starters, it means that we’re slowing down with eliminations of two-loss Power 4 teams. Yes, I say Power 4, because the Pac 12 isn’t quite in …
Sep
26
2021
Is it dishonest to use Clemson in the title if I’m not actually eliminating them this week? I don’t think so. Clemson, after all, will be the focus of our discussion. As I’ll look at in more detail in the charts, there are a whole bunch of two-loss Power 5 teams I’m not eliminating yet. …
Sep
19
2021
Our Eliminator is back in Week 3. We’re running out of Group of 5 teams already, and the Pac 12 is looking to join. Last week, the Pac 12 was 12-12 in nonconference play. That’s bad. This week, it got even worse. The conference went 5-5, including the Pac 12 South going 0-5. The conference …