When it comes to ACC realignment news, to be honest, I ignore about 99% of it. It’s usually wrong frankly, and a waste of time.
When someone like ESPN’s @ADavidHaleJoint or @aadelsonESPN among a few others I pay attention to talk about the ACC, now I’ll take notice.
David Hale recently released a tweet thread with his take on the future of the ACC. It was a lot to unpack, but it’s worth your time to read. Let’s hit the highlights, and give our take.
The past week has been filled with a lot of speculation on the future of the ACC, so I figured I’d put together a little thread to clarify some of the issues and options the league has.
This may be long but the TL;DR is this: THERE IS NO EASY ANSWER. (1/🧵)
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
So, what can be done about it?
Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in courtLet’s look at each in more detail… 5/
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I’ve been told, the $$ just aren’t there. I can explain why but honestly, you don’t want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
ok, this is interesting… If Oregon and Washington don’t add value to the ACC’s (lacking) base media deal, just how exactly is a large majority if every one of the ACC schools not dilutive to the mega deals of the SEC and Big 10? I’m not saying the SEC and Big 10 won’t expand at some time, but the more the numbers come in the more I think we’re approaching a saturation point where those conferences stop at 16 members for several years maybe longer, and at 18 eventually.
I do think ACC has real value to ESPN that it does not want to a) lose to FOX/B1G or b) have to pay tons more for in a new SEC agreement in a few years and 3) devalue a network it’s 50/50 partners on. But even if ESPN opened the coffers, ACC isn’t getting close to SEC $. 16/
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
The Fishbait comment is interesting. ACC Commissioner Jim Philips isn’t one for exaggeration, and he seemed more optimistic about the work Fishbait was doing than other topics.
I’ve made this point over and over. ESPN has an incentive to work with the ACC and remember that FSU AD Mike Alford said he was looking to stay competitive. ESPN isn’t reworking the whole deal, but if the future gap is $30 – $40 Million, and you’ve been working with a $10-15 Million gap for years then the approach is to cut the gap a little more than half. At some point, ESPN could rework the deal to add $5-10 Million a year, Why- millions of reasons.
Then you incrementally work towards the additional $10 Million. Remember in the ACC’s most recent tax returns their distribution was close to an average of $40 Million per ACC school, and that was still without Comcast’s full distribution value added or in a few years the end of the ill-fated Raycom deal, that is estimated to add $3-5 Million back to the ACC schools per year.
Don’t get me wrong the task is still daunting, but it’s like being down 14 in the 4th quarter rather 28.
True for any other revenue initiative ACC could dream up, too. If it’s successful… the SEC or B1G can just mimic it & we’re right back to Square 1. I’ve talked to some ADs who think the easier playoff path in ACC has some value compared to SEC, but not $30M/year value. 28/
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
This is the one point, I don’t really agree with Hale’s logic. Every good idea gets copied, it’s the value of being first and getting the benefit for some time. Remember the Big 10 was first on their network, and the SEC came years later, and then the ACC. Also if the ACC presidents had voted for their own ACC Network when they had the chance in 2008-2009 – maybe things would be different now. As a second example, the SEC was first with the conference championship game before others followed suit later. I don’t imagine Fishbait has anything that lucrative, but that doesn’t mean they may not have an interesting idea looming.
Best guess is we’ll get to Option 5 & a court case eventually. Maybe in a couple years when the pinch of revenue gap is really felt. Maybe if courts rule players = employees. Maybe approaching NEXT round of TV in 2029/30. But as I said at the start: There is NO EASY ANSWER.
-30-— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) May 19, 2023
This looks sobering, but it’s also exactly what we said last year when Andrea Adelson analyzed the grant of rights.
As we’ve said on the blog several times, the ACC’s GOR will make it very difficult for any ACC program to leave in the relatively short term. I consider a relatively short term at least 5 years
We’re still looking at 3-5 years since 2022 for anyone to potentially challenge this GOR which is the earliest timeline we anticipated.
Where Jim Phillips needs to concentrate is attacking this in steps by incremental increases, not just catching the Big 10/SEC close the gap, get it to that somewhat manageable level to make a challenge to the GOR early less likely.
Of course, at the end of the day, this all depends on whether the Big 10 and SEC choose to expand. It’s their world financially and the rest of college athletics is just playing in it.
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