Final CFP Eliminator: Who’s In?

Some seasons, I get to end the Eliminator series with a clear four Playoff teams. Some years, there’s an obvious bubble with a needed resume comparison. This year, we’re somewhere in between.

First of all, the obvious. Georgia and Michigan are in. As of this writing, Georgia is at halftime of the SEC Championship Game (with a blowout lead). Michigan won’t kick off against Purdue for a few more hours. It doesn’t matter. They’re in.

With USC’s second loss of the season to Utah, the Trojans are now out of the Playoff picture. That means that last week’s #5, Ohio State, is also locked into the Playoff. But who gets the fourth spot?

There’s an easy answer, and a complicated answer. On paper, the easy answer is TCU. The Horned Frogs have one loss, to Alabama’s two, and a 2-1 record vs the Top 25 (including 1-1 vs the Top 10, both against Kansas State). Alabama, meanwhile, is 0-1 vs the Top 10, and 2-2 vs the Top 25. But Alabama’s best win is far worse than TCU’s win over Kansas State. Both resumes are pretty weak after that, though TCU’s remains stronger. TCU has five wins over teams with winning records (a stat the committee often cites) and seven wins over bowl teams. Alabama, meanwhile, has three wins over teams with winning records and five wins over bowl teams.

So why isn’t this a slam dunk? Why isn’t Alabama eliminated and TCU in?

There are two reasons. The first is silly, but true–it’s Bama. The selection committee has always given Alabama a level of benefit of the doubt that no other team gets. The second reason is a bit more clear. The committee, over the years, has shown a clear preference for teams that win convincingly over those that don’t. Alabama has had some nail-biters and close wins, yes. But TCU’s entire season has been filled with comebacks and close escapes. The Horned Frogs–even with a superior resume–just have an aura of not belonging, whether that is deserved or not. To be clear, I personally feel they do belong in the Playoff, certainly over Alabama’s resume. But enough people in the college football world–and, clearly, inside the committee room, as TCU has been the lowest-ranked undefeated team each week–view TCU as weak, so I can’t confidently say that TCU will get the nod it deserves.

So there’s a two-team bubble for the final Playoff spot. One team is clearly more deserving, but it’s not clear enough that I can lock TCU in.

In fact, I would not be surprised if the committee puts TCU at #3 on Sunday anyway. TCU has a barely worse resume than Ohio State, but has more medium-tier wins and is 12-1 instead of 11-1. On top of that, keeping TCU at #3 avoids a rematch in the first round of the CFP. However, I would also not be shocked (disappointed, yes, but not shocked) if Alabama slides ahead of TCU on Sunday. Hence, bubble, but with a very clear preference.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.

Week 12: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

ELIMINATED

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 14:

Week 13:

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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