Week 12 CFP Eliminator: Who Can Survive Chaos?

With just two weeks left in the season–and one of those weeks has a limited number of games–there is now a pretty distinct number of possible outcomes this year.

In certain ways, this makes The Eliminator’s job very easy. Let’s find the most chaotic scenario we can, and ask who’s left out. If we know who can’t get in even with extreme chaos, we know who is eliminated. So, what’s our chaos scenario?

For starters, let’s have Georgia win out. That keeps LSU out of the picture. Next, let’s say Ohio State easily beats Michigan. The Wolverines have a weaker resume than the Buckeyes (due to a terrible nonconference schedule), so Michigan getting blown out in The Game is the easiest way to open a spot.

That locks two teams into the Playoff (Georgia and Ohio State). Now, what do we need to see for chaos? Let’s say North Carolina beats Clemson, Notre Dame beats USC, and TCU loses its final two games. Who still has a chance? Can North Carolina get in? Is USC still viable with two losses? Washington and Oregon can be two-loss Pac 12 champions, but each would have extremely weak resumes, and would take unreasonable amounts of chaos (like North Carolina losing to N.C. State before beating Clemson, and Auburn beating Alabama) to be in the picture. Is Alabama able to back its way in?

I do know that with the nature of the blowout this past week, Tennessee is out of the picture. Even if Hendon Hooker is fully healthy (he hopefully is), giving up 63 to South Carolina is too much to overcome.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.

Week 12: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 12 with 12 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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