Week 11 CFP Eliminator: Who’s #4?

It’s somewhat of a strange year for the College Football Playoff picture. Everyone assumes that Georgia won’t lose–at least not before the SEC Championship Game and the Bulldogs certainly look like it. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Michigan are looking at locking up a bid for the winner of The Game as long as both enter undefeated. TCU is somehow escaping game after game. And while the Horned Frogs don’t look like a potential National Championship team, their toughest games (until the Big 12 Championship Game) are behind them.

The biggest problem, though, is that the teams that haven’t lost don’t have real resumes. There’s been so much parity and weakness among teams behind the top teams–power conferences are so top-heavy this year. This means that teams still in the Playoff hunt have far weaker resumes than we usually see from Playoff teams. The Big Ten East runner-up is looking at either one (Michigan) or two (Ohio State) ranked wins, maximum. North Carolina, even if the Tar Heels win out, likely will only have a win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

Alabama, at 10-2, would likely have one ranked win, maybe a second if Texas somehow stays ranked through the end of the year. Meanwhile, the two-loss Pac 12 teams seem to have several potential ranked wins, as the conference has five top teams in a top-heavy league, the most of any power conference. (The SEC also has five highly-ranked teams, but they don’t play each other at the same rate the Pac 12 does.)

In other words, if TCU drops a game or two, and/or the ACC champion has two losses, things are going to get weird.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.

Week 11: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 11 with 15 teams alive, and three more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 12 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page