Week 9 CFP Eliminator: Notre Dame can Wreck the ACC

This year’s Notre Dame football team is, to put things lightly, an enigma. The Irish opened the season by keeping things very close against Ohio State. Notre Dame played far better against the Buckeyes than any team other than Penn State. The Irish also have some solid wins on the year. Then again, they also have stunningly bad losses against Marshall and Stanford. So, as I said, an enigma.

However, that enigma is also a huge problem for the ACC. This week, Notre Dame just effectively knocked Syracuse out of the Playoff race. (No, I haven’t eliminated the Orange yet. But Syracuse’s path to the Playoff pretty much only includes Purdue winning the Big Ten, so that elimination is coming pretty soon.) The Irish also put a major dent in North Carolina’s resume. The Tar Heels consistently play close games against mediocre teams, but they would be looking at a Top 10 ranking right now if not for that loss to Notre Dame. Instead, they need a miracle to be in the Playoff conversation.

Next up for Notre Dame? Clemson. If the Irish take out the Tigers in South Bend this weekend, we are likely looking at no ACC team in the Playoff. Perhaps enough chaos can happen to keep a one-loss Clemson or North Carolina in the hunt, but it doesn’t seem likely this year. So yes, Notre Dame might single-handedly wrest the ACC’s Playoff hopes.

Then again, Notre Dame closes the season against USC. So perhaps the Irish will be taking more than one conference out of the Playoff chase. In a year where it seems like the four best teams might come from just two divisions, I’m not sure the selection committee would complain too much about that happening.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team had a real chance this year.

Week 9: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 9 with 24 teams alive, and six more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 18 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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