Week 8 CFP Eliminator: Who Really has a Chance?

As we go through this week’s Eliminator, we have 24 teams still alive. Of those 24, though, less than a dozen are serious contenders.

It’s looking more and more like we’re on a path to some runaway playoff teams this season. Clemson has survived its biggest challenges and looks pretty likely to finish undefeated. So does TCU. Either Ohio State or Michigan will come out of the Big Ten, almost certainly. And we’ll get an SEC champion that’s a near-lock for the Playoff. Four spots, four teams.

More importantly, though, there are such obvious fallback next teams up if Clemson or TCU slips. A one-loss SEC runner-up (or SEC East runner-up) will have the inside track to the Playoff over a one-loss Pac 12 champion (especially if the two teams involved are Georgia and Oregon). A one-loss Big Ten East runner-up will also probably slot up ahead of a non-Clemson ACC champion or the Pac 12 champion. So yes, 24 teams are still alive. But everyone outside of Clemson, TCU, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama are very much hoping for chaos right now. And chaos might be coming, but we’re starting to run out of time.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.

Week 8: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 8 with 29 teams alive, and five more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 24 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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