Week 7 CFP Eliminator: Potential Weirdness Taking Shape

The Eliminator is running into a bit of a problem. We still have a fair list of contenders–29 teams remaining, and a dozen of the most serious contenders–but those serious contenders are somewhat concentrated in a few divisions. We are on the verge of seeing chaos come about if we get one–let alone two–upsets in Conference Championship Games.

Purdue and Illinois are both still alive, but the Big Ten West is likely functionally eliminated. (We know the premise of the Eliminator is that any team could win out, but we’re pretty sure Illinois isn’t running the table.) But what if a team from that division wins the Big Ten Championship Game? The same is true of the ACC Coastal. Would the Ohio State-Michigan winner get in over a team that just beat them? Would Clemson? And let’s not get started on the Pac 12 North, where the likely best division champion has a 46-point Week 1 loss hanging on that resume like an anvil.

There are plenty of opportunities for more chaos before we get there, of course. It’s looking less and less likely, though, which means that from here on out the Eliminator needs to keep in mind alternative scenarios for what happens if we get weirdness in the Conference Championship Games.

As a funny note, for the second straight week we goodbye to a pair of in-state rivals. Last week, the Washington schools bowed out of Playoff contention together. This week, it’s Florida and Florida State. Maybe the Sunshine State will be back in the CFP hunt next year.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.

Week 7: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 7 with 37 teams alive, and eight more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 29 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Teams Eliminated

As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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