Week 6 CFP Eliminator: Let’s Talk about Auburn

We have the most eliminations of any week so far this year, as we say goodbye to 15 teams’ Playoff chances after Week 6. Eliminations should slow as we remain at the top contenders, but it would not surprise me if we stagnate at a final 15 or so for most of November. Of course, we have to get to that 15 by the time November arrives, so expect more elimination-filled weeks this month.

This week, though, I want to focus on one elimination in particular: Auburn. Now, Auburn’s elimination might not seem so weird to you. After all, the Tigers have three losses, which is always an auto-elimination. That rule, however, has had one exception the last five years: Auburn. Auburn’s schedule means that it could always have the ability to close the season with back-to-back wins over Alabama and Georgia, which would be a powerful Playoff push. So why is Auburn eliminated now, with that still on the table?

There are two main reasons. The first is how the country is stacking up. Auburn would need to see two-loss champions in at least two Power 5 conferences. It looks somewhat possible in the Pac 12, but not very likely in any others. Even then, the Tigers would need to hope that a three-loss resume with two elite wins (plus a win over Ole Miss) is better than a two-loss resume with a bunch of very good wins, even if no elite ones.

More importantly, there are too many teams to pass. Auburn would need Penn State to win out, basically, but also for the Ohio State-Michigan winner to lose a second game–and again, Auburn needs to hope that its three-loss resume is better than a two-loss Ohio State or Michigan. Then there’s the Alabama (and Ole Miss) needle to thread. Auburn would need a 10-2 Alabama team to look good enough that it’s still considered elite–but not so much that Auburn’s win over Alabama is devalued.

In short, Auburn has a theoretical path to the Playoff. That path includes Penn State winning out, a major upset in both the ACC and Pac 12 Championship Games, the Big 12 champion somehow ending up with two or more losses, and enough in-conference chaos in the Big Ten and SEC to keep Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and Ole Miss out of the running. This path is theoretically possible, but it’s so far-fetched. The odds are infinitesimal, so Auburn is eliminated.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.

Week 6: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 6 with 52 teams alive, and 15 more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 37 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Others: Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 6:

LouisvilleEliminated with three losses

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

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