This season looks like it has strong potential chalk for the Playoff. Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan all look dominant. Between Clemson, Georgia, and USC, we really could just see four teams cruise to the Playoff. Which four will those be? Of course, no one knows. But there’s a strong chance the Eliminator this season is simple?
But what if it isn’t? Right now, there are a lot of teams that in theory should be eliminated. It’s hard to find any real Playoff path for Pitt, or for Miami or Iowa or Purdue. It’s even a little difficult to see a path for some one-loss teams (N.C. State needs Clemson to lose twice). But we’re only five games into the season. Our top-heavy beginning to the season could totally flip on its head over the next two months. It doesn’t seem likely, but we’ll see.
On a weird note for me, we have seen five Power 5 teams fire their coaches so far this season. All five of those teams have been eliminated already (though Nebraska was eliminated after firing Scott Frost, not before). For the last three weeks, a coach has been fired the day after we eliminated them. It’s a funny point, but perhaps it’s also a trend about how quickly schools are willing to pull the plug on the season nowadays.
How it works
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
I need to start with two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically two are still alive.
Week 5: Teams Remaining
As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 5 with 59 teams alive, and seven more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 52 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.
I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Clemson | Undefeated so far. |
| Duke | Loss to Kansas doesn’t look so bad right now. |
| Florida State | One loss, but likely still controls its own destiny. Potential good win over LSU. |
| Miami (Fl) | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Pittsburgh | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| N.C. State | Loss not at all bad, but needs a lot of help now. |
| North Carolina | Loss to Notre Dame hurts but not clear how much. |
| Syracuse | Undefeated so far. |
| Wake Forest | Won’t be punished for 2OT loss to Clemson. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Iowa State | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Kansas | Undefeated so far(!). |
| Kansas State | Loss to Tulane leaves no room for error. |
| Oklahoma | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Oklahoma State | Undefeated so far. |
| TCU | Undefeated so far. |
| Texas | No idea how committee will deal with two-loss Texas, but one more loss makes it moot. |
| Texas Tech | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Loss to Indiana leaves no room for error. |
| Indiana | Likely needs to run the table in in the Big Ten East. |
| Iowa | Hasn’t looked good yet and loss to Iowa State hurts, but huge opportunities still on the schedule. |
| Maryland | Close loss to Michigan won’t hurt too much. |
| Michigan | Undefeated so far. |
| Minnesota | Tough loss to Purdue, but likely still controls own destiny. |
| Ohio State | Undefeated so far. |
| Penn State | Undefeated so far. |
| Purdue | Weak cross-divisional schedule means likely eliminated even without another loss. |
| Rutgers | Loss to Iowa means needs to run the table in the Big Ten East. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| California | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Oregon | Blowout loss to Georgia might mean already eliminated, but I’m keeping them around for now. |
| Oregon State | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| UCLA | Undefeated so far. |
| USC | Undefeated so far. |
| Utah | Loss to Florida hurts, especially with how Gators have looked since. |
| Washington | Needs to run the table and might need some help after that. |
| Washington State | Tight loss to Oregon leaves no room for error. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated so far. |
| Arkansas | Likely eliminated even without another loss. |
| Auburn | Two not good losses, but likely a lock by winning out. |
| Florida | Likely will be eliminated even without another loss. |
| Georgia | Undefeated so far. |
| Kentucky | Weak schedule and loss to Ole Miss means need to win out. |
| LSU | Tough loss to Florida State, but plenty of quality win opportunities remain. |
| Mississippi | Undefeated so far. |
| Mississippi State | Close loss to LSU, but tons of opportunities still on schedule. |
| South Carolina | Likely eliminated even without another loss. |
| Tennessee | Undefeated so far. |
| Texas A&M | Two pretty bad losses, but could still be in by running the table. |
| Vanderbilt | Must win out to remain in contention. |
Others: BYU, Coastal Carolina
Teams Eliminated
As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Louisville | Eliminated with three losses |
| Michigan State | Eliminated with three losses |
| Missouri | Eliminated with three losses |
| Stanford | Eliminated with three losses |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated with three losses |
| West Virginia | Eliminated with three losses |
| Wisconsin | Eliminated with three losses |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Boston College | Eliminated with three losses |
| Georgia Tech | Eliminated with three losses |
| Notre Dame | Eliminated with two losses, one of them very bad. Even solid remaining schedule can’t overcome loss to Marshall. |
| Virginia | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential on the schedule |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | Eliminated with two losses (one exceedingly ugly) and not enough quality win potential |
| Colorado | Eliminated with three losses |
| Nebraska | Eliminated with three losses |
| Northwestern | Eliminated with loss to FCS Southern Illinois |
Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page
Leave a Reply