Week 4 CFP Eliminator: No Repeat for Cincinnati

I started writing at Week 3 this year, and I said the Group of 5 was out of it. Well, now the Group of 5 really is.

Cincinnati made the Playoff last year off the back of an incredible season––including a win over Notre Dame and decent chaos in the ACC, Pac 12, and Big 12. The Bearcats lost a ton of talent this year but had the potential to reach the Playoff anyway with a strong schedule. That mostly ended in Week 1, when Cincinnati couldn’t finish drives and lost to Arkansas. Still, we kept the dream alive––until Arkansas lost, that is. The Bearcats could have skated by with a seven-point loss to an SEC champion and been in contention for a Playoff spot. Arkansas could still win the SEC, of course. But the general collapse of the AAC so far this year, combined with Arkansas’ loss to Texas A&M, means that the Bearcats won’t even be considered for the CFP. (I guess if Indiana runs the table over the Big Ten Cincinnati could be considered, but even then I doubt it.)

We also have our first ACC eliminations of the year. Georgia Tech and Boston College are out with three losses. Virginia has only lost two games, but with no real quality win pickups in the nonconference and a weak cross-division schedule, the Cavaliers are also out. Also, as Marshall has lost two straight since its stunning win over Notre Dame, the Irish are out. Not even wins over two Power 5 champions (upcoming games against Clemson and USC) can save the Irish from that loss.

How it works

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. With the way this year has begun, no G5 team has a real chance this year, though technically a few are still alive. The best hope for a G5 team right now is both Tulane and Kansas State winning out. Like I said, no real chance.

Week 3: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams (James Madison is still transitioning to FBS and is not eligible for the postseason this year). We began Week 4 with 65 teams alive, and six more were eliminated this week. Therefore, 59 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Others: BYU, Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

As the season goes on, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. This season I will only be listing Power 5 teams in this section.

Week 4:

Week 3:

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