With one week left in the season, we still have nine teams left in Playoff contention. Does that number sound high to you? It shouldn’t. Let’s explain why. First of all, let’s look at the teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon. Do you think Ohio State and Oregon don’t have a chance? Well, I’ll explain why I can’t eliminate them in the best way possible–presenting a scenario.
Let’s say the following results happen this week. Who would you put in?
1. Georgia beats Alabama convincingly (let’s say by two touchdowns or more).
2. Cincinnati loses to Houston.
3. Baylor beats Oklahoma State.
Georgia is a lock in this case. Michigan is in. Notre Dame looks solid. Who’s the fourth? Is it Ohio State, who the advanced stats and metrics prefer? Is it Baylor, who has a better top-end resume but a terrible loss and minimal meat? Is it Oregon, who trails in every metric but owns that head-to-head win over Ohio State? Does Alabama back in, getting an immediate rematch with a Georgia team that just beat it handily? And what if, on top of all this, Michigan loses (convincingly) to Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game? Now we need to find a second team (and no, it won’t be Iowa–Michigan would be the only ranked win on the season for the Hawkeyes, and they have two non-competitive losses). Does Michigan back in anyway? Does this open the door more for Baylor and Oregon?
The answer to all of those questions is, quite honestly, “Maybe.” And if, with one week remaining, I can say “maybe” to a scenario for a team making the Playoff, then they’re not eliminated. It’s that simple.
Georgia is in with a win. Alabama is in with a win. Michigan is in with a win. Cincinnati is almost definitely in with a win. Oklahoma State is in with a win and an Alabama loss. If those things don’t happen, though–we have Notre Dame, Ohio State, Baylor, and Oregon rooting for team chaos.
How the CFP Eliminator works
The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.
If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
I also need to add two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.
Week 12: Teams Remaining
We began this week with 11 teams. In Week 13, we eliminated two teams. Therefore, nine teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame | Needs a bit of chaos this week, but possibly in solid position if we get some. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Needs to win the Big 12 Championship Game and get maximum chaos. |
| Oklahoma State | Likely in with a win in the Big 12 Championship Game, as long as Alabama doesn’t beat Georgia. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Michigan | A Playoff lock with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game, likely out with a loss. |
| Ohio State | Ohio State needs chaos this week, but probably wants Michigan to win the Big Ten Championship Game (and to do so impressively). |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Oregon | Needs maximum chaos and to be very impressive in avenging the loss to Utah to even be considered. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Alabama is a Playoff lock if it beats Georgia. |
| Georgia | Undefeated so far. Likely a lock unless Alabama wins the SEC Championship Game convincingly, though the resume is somewhat weak. |
Independents: Notre Dame
AAC: Cincinnati
Conference-USA: Eliminated
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: Eliminated
Sun Belt: Eliminated
Teams Eliminated
Week 13:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Oklahoma | Eliminated following loss in Bedlam and being locked out of Big 12 Championship Game. |
| Wake Forest | Eliminated with no path to the Playoff remaining, since the Demon Deacons can’t pass Notre Dame or the Big 12 champion (or even Ohio State, most likely). |
Week 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Michigan State | Eliminated with a blowout loss to Ohio State, only one top-quality win, and no path to the Big Ten title. |
| Ole Miss | Eliminated with two losses, no path to SEC title, and only one top-quality win. |
| UTSA | Still undefeated, but UTSA never had the schedule to really have a chance. Nor did the Roadrunners dominate a weak schedule in the way a Playoff team would be expected to. |
Week 11:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Auburn | Eliminated with fourth loss. |
| Texas A&M | Eliminated with third loss. |
Week 10:
| Team: | Notes: |
| N.C. State | Eliminated with two mediocre losses and no real opportunity for more than one ranked win. |
Week 9:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Iowa | Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential, including Penn State and Iowa State wins getting weaker |
| Iowa State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Kentucky | Eliminated with second loss and no quality wins |
| Penn State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Pittsburgh | Eliminated with second bad loss and not enough quality win potential |
| San Diego State | Eliminated with loss to Fresno State |
| SMU | Eliminated with loss to Houston |
| Virginia | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 8:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Clemson | Eliminated with third loss |
| Coastal Carolina | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Purdue | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 7:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12 |
| Arkansas | Eliminated with third loss |
| Boston College | Eliminated with second loss and not enough quality win potential |
| BYU | Eliminated with second loss |
| Florida | Eliminated with third loss |
| Kansas State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Mississippi State | Eliminated with third loss |
| TCU | Eliminated with third loss |
| Tennessee | Eliminated with third loss |
| Texas | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 6:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Louisville | Eliminated with third loss |
| LSU | Eliminated with third loss |
| Maryland | Eliminated with two huge blowout losses |
| Oregon State | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential in the Pac 12 |
| Rutgers | Eliminated with third loss |
| Stanford | Eliminated with third loss |
| Syracuse | Eliminated with third loss |
| Texas Tech | Eliminated with second blowout loss |
| USC | Eliminated with third loss |
| Virginia Tech | Eliminated with two losses and not enough quality win potential |
| Wyoming | Eliminated with loss to Air Force |
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Army | Eliminated with loss to Ball State |
| Duke | Eliminated with two bad losses and not enough quality win opportunities |
| Georgia Tech | Eliminated with third loss |
| Indiana | Eliminated with third loss |
| Missouri | Eliminated with third loss |
| Northwestern | Eliminated with third loss |
| South Alabama | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| UCLA | Eliminated with two losses, a weak Pac 12, and nonconference opponents getting weaker |
| West Virginia | Eliminated with third loss |
| Wisconsin | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Liberty | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to Syracuse |
| Minnesota | Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green |
| Nebraska | Eliminated with third loss |
| North Carolina | Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining. |
| South Carolina | Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses. |
| Utah State | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with loss to Utah State |
| California | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Georgia State |
| Colorado | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Kansas | Eliminated with second blowout loss |
| Marshall | Eliminated with loss to ECU |
| Miami (Fl) | Eliminated with second blowout loss |
| Nevada | Eliminated with loss to Kansas State |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
| Utah | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Washington State | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| Arizona | Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Ball State | Eliminated with loss to Penn State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with loss to Nebraska |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Texas State |
| Florida State | Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic |
| Illinois | Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA |
| MTSU | Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with loss to Wyoming |
| Toledo | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| UAB | Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Army |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with loss to Auburn |
| Boise State | Eliminated with loss to South Florida |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with loss to Tennessee |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Missouri |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State |
| East Carolina | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Florida Atlantic | Eliminated with loss to Florida |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with loss to UCLA |
| Houston | Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech |
| Kent State | Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Kentucky |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated with loss to UTEP |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Ohio | Eliminated with loss to Syracuse |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest |
| Rice | Eliminated with loss to Arkansas |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to N.C. State |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Temple | Eliminated with loss to Rutgers |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to Baylor |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to UC Davis |
| UConn | Eliminated with loss to Fresno State |
| UMass | Eliminated with loss to Pitt |
| UNLV | Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State |
| Washington | Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Michigan |
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