Week 11 CFP Eliminator: It’s Finally Time to Talk about Cincinnati

We’ve been waiting seven years for this, but we are finally ready to discuss a Group of 5 school as a serious Playoff contender. And by “serious contender” I don’t just mean that a team has a chance. By “serious contender,” I mean that the Cincinnati Bearcats have the inside track to one of the four Playoff spots.

With Cincinnati’s resume and undefeated record, the Bearcats sit firmly ahead of the leaders of both the ACC and the Big 12. So while, for example, the Eliminator counts three Big 12 teams as still alive, those teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State) are unlikely to pass Cincinnati if the Bearcats run the table. I would even be pretty confident that Baylor has no chance unless the Bearcats lose, while the two Oklahoma schools would need to win their final three games in blowout fashion (think 2014 Ohio State) to make the jump.

With only three weeks of games left (including conference championship games), and with so few contenders so far ahead of the field, we can actually start mapping out the scenarios where teams don’t make the Playoff as easily as we can map out the scenarios where they do. The scenario where Cincinnati misses the Playoff is simple: Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State all win out. Barring that, though, it’s getting difficult to find ways for a 13-0 Cincinnati squad to miss the Playoff. It can happen, certainly––but the Bearcats are in far better position than any Group of 5 team has dreamed of being at this point.

Speaking of the Group of 5, I need to mention the UTSA Roadrunners. I have not yet eliminated UTSA, but the Roadrunners are out. They haven’t been dominant enough, their schedule is too weak, and even in this chaos-filled season we’re nowhere near enough for them to sneak in. Win or lose, I will be eliminating UTSA next week. It’s been an impressive ride to last this long, but eventually reality has to catch up.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance.

Week 11: Teams Remaining

We began this week with 16 teams. In Week 11, we eliminated two teams. Therefore, 14 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: Eliminated

Sun Belt: Eliminated

Teams Eliminated

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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