Week 7 CFP Eliminator: Pac 12 Down to One

Last week, I mentioned how I kept Texas A&M alive until they were clearly eliminated. After all, they had Alabama up next, and that would solve things either way. The same principle applied to Purdue this week. Once again, the Boilermakers stayed alive until they picked up a third loss or until the season passed them by. Well, with a win over Iowa they’re now in a similar boat to Texas A&M. If the Boilermakers win out (they still have Michigan State and Ohio State on the schedule), they’re in strong Playoff position. That’s a big if, though.

The teams not in strong Playoff position are in the Pac 12. Oregon still has that win over Ohio State, of course. But the Ducks are consistently underwhelming against bad teams, and there are just not enough quality wins in that conference right now. There are too many nonconference losses, and BYU is no longer as valuable an opponent as it was two weeks ago. (The Cougars were eliminated with their second straight loss this week.) The Ducks are still in good position if they win out, but no one else is. No other Pac 12 team is ranked in the major polls currently, which means there just aren’t opportunities to make up for a second loss–which every Pac 12 team other than Oregon has.

For the most part, the only eliminations this week were teams with three losses. But as Georgia continues to dominate, Cincinnati stays impressive and unbeaten, and the Big Ten looks on track to be guaranteed at least one entrant, we’ll soon be able to eliminate two-loss teams in other power conferences.

Clemson, meanwhile, stays alive. The Tigers are barely surviving, but Pitt and Wake Forest looks like potential wins of decent quality. Clemson’s biggest problem is that it can’t really make the Playoff without an ACC title. For that to happen, N.C. State almost certainly needs to lose at least two games. There are definitely losable games on that Wolfpack schedule, but the team doesn’t look like it will be losing them. That needs to change for Clemson to have a chance.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 7: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 38 teams. In Week 7, we eliminated ten teams. Therefore, 28 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Notre Dame

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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