Week 5 CFP Eliminator: Chaos Slows Eliminations

(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Could 2021 end up as a relatively chalk-like football season? Sure. But it’s definitely not looking like it will. So what does that mean for the Eliminator?

Well, for starters, it means that we’re slowing down with eliminations of two-loss Power 4 teams. Yes, I say Power 4, because the Pac 12 isn’t quite in the same air as the other four right now. I’m not eliminating all two-loss Pac 12 teams (Stanford stays alive thanks to an upcoming game against Notre Dame, for example), but most are gone. For other power conference teams, though, we’re racking up teams with losses.

Could we see Oklahoma, Iowa, and Wake Forest run the table to get four undefeated power teams? Of course. Odds are that it won’t happen, though. And depending on how much chaos comes, we could get anything from multiple SEC teams in the picture, to one-loss champions easily in, to Cincinnati and BYU getting a shot. And as long as there are so many possibilities, we can’t eliminate teams that have an outside chance.

One way or another, things play themselves out. For example, Texas A&M isn’t eliminated yet. But the Aggies play Alabama next week. Either they’ll win and earn their way into contention, or they’ll lose and be eliminated anyway. That’s just an obvious example, but a similar story will play itself out with the vast majority of teams yet to be eliminated. All we can do until then is watch, play out scenarios, and enjoy the football.

How the CFP Eliminator works

The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.

If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

I also need to add two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.

Week 5: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 59 teams. In Week 5, we eliminated ten teams. Therefore, 49 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.

I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: UTSA

MAC: Eliminated

Mountain West: San Diego State, Wyoming

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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