Is it dishonest to use Clemson in the title if I’m not actually eliminating them this week? I don’t think so. Clemson, after all, will be the focus of our discussion.
As I’ll look at in more detail in the charts, there are a whole bunch of two-loss Power 5 teams I’m not eliminating yet. Why not? Well, because there are a lot of them. What happens if they all win? That’s the question I need to ask before I can eliminate teams. Is there a path to the Playoff?
As we all know, there are four Playoff spots and five power conferences. If multiple power conferences have two-loss champions, then it’s likely a two-loss team gets in. Clemson could still win the ACC. Iowa State can still win the Big 12. Odds are the Pac 12 champion having two (or more) losses are pretty high right now. If all those things happen, would Clemson get a Playoff bid? How many games does Notre Dame need to lose to be behind these teams? Does it matter what Cincinnati and BYU do? I don’t know. And since I don’t know, I can’t eliminate these two-loss teams yet.
Of course, since all these things almost certainly won’t happen, I’ll be eliminating teams like Clemson, USC, Iowa State, and Wisconsin eventually. But I have to wait for the wacky scenarios to weed themselves out before I make it official.
How the CFP Eliminator works
The goal is simple: We are going to count down every single FBS team that remains in contention for a College Football Playoff bid. We start with all of the FBS teams, and they get eliminated one by one until only a few remain.
If the Playoff teams are obvious, we will only have four remaining Selection Sunday morning, like 2019. If, like 2018, there is a serious bubble with multiple teams with strong claims for the fourth spot, then we might have five (or, in 2014 and 2018, six) still alive on Selection Sunday.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams on this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
I also need to add two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only: if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to assume a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in modern college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory––crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. I will be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but for now the standard remains.
Week 4: Teams Remaining
As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began this week with 66 teams. In Week 4, we eliminated seven teams. Therefore, 59 teams currently remain in College Football Playoff contention.
I include Notre Dame in the ACC in this roundup for simplicity.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Boston College | Undefeated so far. |
| Clemson | On the brink of elimination. Needs to win out and lots of help. |
| Duke | Ugly loss to Charlotte. Will be eliminated soon. |
| Georgia Tech | On the brink of elimination. |
| Louisville | Loss to Ole Miss leaves almost no margin for error. |
| Pittsburgh | Bad loss to Western Michigan. Likely eliminated soon. |
| N.C. State | Tough loss to Mississippi State. Little room for error. |
| Notre Dame | Undefeated so far. |
| Syracuse | Loss to Rutgers means elimination likely coming soon. |
| Virginia | Likely no path, but can’t eliminate yet. |
| Virginia Tech | Tough loss to West Virginia. Little margin for error. |
| Wake Forest | Undefeated so far. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Undefeated so far. |
| Iowa State | On the brink of elimination. |
| Kansas State | Likely eliminated with another loss. |
| Oklahoma | Undefeated so far. |
| Oklahoma State | Undefeated so far. |
| TCU | Loss to SMU means little margin for error in conference. |
| Texas | Blowout loss to Arkansas leaves Texas on the brink of elimination. |
| Texas Tech | Blowout loss means likely elimination coming soon. |
| West Virginia | On the brink of elimination. Only still alive because of close losses to still-undefeated teams. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Indiana | On the brink of elimination. |
| Iowa | Undefeated so far, two potential quality wins. |
| Maryland | Undefeated so far. |
| Michigan | Undefeated so far. |
| Michigan State | Undefeated so far. |
| Northwestern | On the brink of elimination. |
| Ohio State | Loss to Oregon hurts, but still likely in by running the table. |
| Penn State | Undefeated so far. |
| Purdue | Undefeated so far. |
| Rutgers | Close loss to Michigan won’t be held against them. |
| Wisconsin | On the brink of elimination. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona State | Loss to BYU means on the brink of elimination. |
| Oregon | Undefeated so far. Huge quality win over Ohio State. |
| Oregon State | Loss to Purdue means on the brink of elimination. |
| Stanford | Likely no path, but can’t yet be eliminated. |
| UCLA | Heartbreaking loss to Fresno State means on the brink of elimination. |
| USC | Likely no path, but can’t yet be eliminated. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated so far. |
| Arkansas | Undefeated so far. |
| Auburn | Close loss to Penn State won’t be held against them. |
| Florida | Very close loss to Alabama won’t be held against them. |
| Georgia | Undefeated so far. |
| Kentucky | Undefeated so far. |
| LSU | Tough loss to UCLA, but plenty of quality win opportunities remain. |
| Mississippi | Undefeated so far. |
| Mississippi State | Out with another loss, but likely controls own Playoff destiny. |
| Missouri | Basically out with another loss, but likely controls own Playoff destiny. |
| Tennessee | Eliminated with another loss. |
| Texas A&M | Loss to Arkansas hurts, but plenty of room for quality wins. |
Independents: Army, BYU
AAC: Cincinnati, SMU
Conference-USA: UTSA
MAC: Eliminated
Mountain West: San Diego State, Wyoming
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama
Teams Eliminated
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Liberty | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to Syracuse |
| Minnesota | Eliminated with two losses, including embarrassing nonconference loss to Bowling Green |
| Nebraska | Eliminated with third loss |
| North Carolina | Eliminated with blowout loss and only one major quality win opportunities remaining. |
| South Carolina | Eliminated with two losses and not enough chances for quality wins. Clemson’s second loss means not enough quality OOC to overcome two losses. |
| Utah State | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Air Force | Eliminated with loss to Utah State |
| California | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Georgia State |
| Colorado | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Kansas | Eliminated with second blowout loss |
| Marshall | Eliminated with loss to ECU |
| Miami (Fl) | Eliminated with second blowout loss |
| Nevada | Eliminated with loss to Kansas State |
| New Mexico | Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
| Utah | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
| Washington State | Eliminated with two losses and a weak Pac 12 |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| Arizona | Eliminated with blowout loss to San Diego State |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Ball State | Eliminated with loss to Penn State |
| Buffalo | Eliminated with loss to Nebraska |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Wisconsin |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Texas State |
| Florida State | Eliminated with loss to FCS Jacksonville State |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Florida Atlantic |
| Illinois | Eliminated with blowout loss to Virginia, combined with loss to UTSA |
| MTSU | Eliminated with loss to Virginia Tech |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated with loss to Wyoming |
| Toledo | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| UAB | Eliminated with ugly loss to Georgia |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Boise State |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Army |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated with loss to Auburn |
| Boise State | Eliminated with loss to South Florida |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated with loss to Tennessee |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Missouri |
| Colorado State | Eliminated with loss to South Dakota State |
| East Carolina | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Florida Atlantic | Eliminated with loss to Florida |
| Fresno State | Eliminated with loss to Oregon |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Hawaii | Eliminated with loss to UCLA |
| Houston | Eliminated with loss to Texas Tech |
| Kent State | Eliminated with loss to Texas A&M |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Kentucky |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Mississippi State |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated with ugly loss to Cincinnati |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated with loss to UTEP |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Ohio | Eliminated with loss to Syracuse |
| Old Dominion | Eliminated with loss to Wake Forest |
| Rice | Eliminated with loss to Arkansas |
| San Jose State | Eliminated with loss to USC |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to N.C. State |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Temple | Eliminated with loss to Rutgers |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to Baylor |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to UC Davis |
| UConn | Eliminated with loss to Fresno State |
| UMass | Eliminated with loss to Pitt |
| UNLV | Eliminated with loss to Eastern Washington |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with loss to FCS East Tennessee State |
| Washington | Eliminated with loss to FCS Montana, plus a weakened Pac 12 North |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated with loss to Michigan |
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