Selection Sunday CFP Eliminator and Bubble Watch: Who’s In?

It seems fitting that 2020 will leave us with the most chaotic Selection Sunday of the CFP era.

Twice in the CFP era, we’ve had a three-team “bubble” coming out of Conference Championship weekend. In 2014, the fourth spot could have gone to any one of Ohio State, Baylor, or TCU. In 2017, Alabama, Ohio State, and Wisconsin were all alive the final weekend of the year.

This year, though–partially because of the selection committee’s inconsistency and partially because of the wackiness of this season (those points likely aren’t unrelated)–there are four teams who we can be reasonably not shocked if they get tapped for the #4 spot on Sunday. Before that, though, we have to point out the obvious: Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State are Playoff locks. So, who is on the bubble for the #4 spot, and what are their arguments?

Bubble Watch

I haven’t done my traditional Bubble Watch this year, mostly because this season has negated its effectiveness. With most teams playing no (or a maximum of one) nonconference games and with zero nonconference games between Power 5 teams, there is no real way to compare resume. Schedule strength is all but meaningless as most schedules are self-contained. Advanced metrics ratings can’t properly judge teams because there’s just too much overlap and not enough variation in who teams play. Inevitably, advanced metrics have defaulted towards preseason assumptions about teams’ power, which honestly seems to be what the committee has done as well.

So how am I supposed to compare resumes? No team has a real resume because there is no way to honestly rank teams and their schedules. Instead, we’ll go over the four bubble teams and their arguments.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame has the best “resume,” as much as any team has one. Wins over Clemson and North Carolina are better than anything any other bubble team can claim. Notre Dame is likely the safest choice for the committee–and possibly the best team outside the three Playoff locks–but the Irish have to hope that the selection committee is willing to overlook how thoroughly dominated they were against Clemson.

Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M’s most basic argument is inertia. The committee has thought Texas A&M was the first team out all year, so with Notre Dame losing the Aggies should move up. Sure, Texas A&M got blown out by Alabama, but that was back in its second game of the year. Texas A&M can say it improved throughout the season, and that makes the Aggies a better choice than a team that got blown out by Clemson in its final game. Also, Texas A&M can say that the committee should discount Notre Dame’s win over Clemson, as the Tigers were very shorthanded in that game.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati’s argument is a pretty simple one. The Bearcats have been pretty dominant, albeit against a questionable schedule. Moreover, they can say they are an unknown. Does the committee think that Cincinnati can hang with Alabama? Probably not. But the committee knows (or should know) that Texas A&M didn’t, and–using Clemson as a similar proxy for Alabama–Notre Dame didn’t either. Blowouts losses to Top 2 teams prove that Notre Dame and Texas A&M can’t be the best team in the country. Cincinnati would say, “You might not think we’re the best, but at least we could be. You can’t prove that we aren’t.”

Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma has the same argument as Cincinnati, though it isn’t nearly as good a case. The Sooners lost two games early in the season, but they were never blown out. They came close in both games–statistically dominant in one and pretty even in the other–and have looked like one of the country’s best teams since then. Oklahoma–like Texas A&M and Notre Dame–is asking the committee to disregard its losses. But at least those losses weren’t blowouts, which means that Oklahoma could potentially compete with Alabama. We have already seen that Texas A&M and Notre Dame can’t.

The Eliminator: How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 14: Teams Remaining

We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. With three more eliminations this week, there are now 11 teams remaining in Playoff contention.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

AAC:

Independents: None

Conference-USA: None

MAC: None

Mountain West: None

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 15:

Week 14:

Week 13:

Week 12:

Week 11:

Week 10:

Week 9:

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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