(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Alabama. Notre Dame. Clemson. Ohio State.
As of now, we have four teams that are unquestionably ahead of the pack in the College Football Playoff race. And, if we’re being fully honest, none of the other teams “in the hunt” are particularly close right now.
Oh, this group of four has questions about it, certainly. Alabama’s defense isn’t the best we’ve seen from Nick Saban (not that that has mattered, at all, with Devonta Smith being completely unstoppable). Notre Dame has had a few surprisingly close games, most notably against Louisville. Clemson has struggled in multiple games this year, though the team is talented enough to overcome struggles against just about anyone. And Ohio State hasn’t played nearly as many games as the rest, not to mention a close call against Indiana (though that doesn’t look as bad now that Indiana has beaten Wisconsin).
After these four, though, things get a little dicey. Florida and Texas A&M still aren’t losing, nor is Cincinnati. The fact remains, though, that as of now Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Ohio State are the runaway top four teams in the country.
Of course, this leaves us with a major problem–namely, Notre Dame and Clemson will face each other in two weeks. If Clemson wins, both teams probably get in the Playoff (more on that in a bit). If Notre Dame wins again, then the committee could have a dilemma on its hands. Is Clemson a top four team that just had the misfortune of facing another (slightly better) top four team twice? The answer to that question is a likely yes. Will the selection committee be willing to put a team in the Playoff that has two losses–both of them at the hands of the same other Playoff team? The answer to that is much muddier.
So, with just two weeks left in the season, we can map out some pretty clear Playoff scenarios. Usually it’s not possible at this point–there would be just way too many moving pieces. However, with four clear front-runners, we can right now look at all the very likely scenarios.
Senario 1: Chalk
Alabama wins out, Notre Dame wins out, and Ohio State wins out. This might not be the easiest scenario for the committee (we’ll discuss that in a minute), but it’s a pretty easy one. We have three Playoff locks. Then, the committee will have to decide between a two-loss Clemson and, assuming they also win out, a one-loss Texas A&M and an undefeated Cincinnati. There are no real right answers in this scenario, but there’s no wrong one either. Clemson would probably be expected to give #1 Alabama the best game in this case, but on resume it should be one of the other two. No right choice, no wrong choice.
Scenario 2: Five-Team Nightmare
What happens if Florida beats Alabama (assuming Florida beats LSU first) and Clemson beats Notre Dame? Obviously, the committee’s dream scenario is only one of these two happening. That way the four teams are clear. But if both win? Which conference runner-up is kept out? Is it Notre Dame, with their initial win over Clemson retroactively discounted somewhat? Could it possibly be Alabama? Or is it an undefeated Ohio State for only playing six/seven games? I have no idea, and I’m pretty sure the committee doesn’t either. Obviously the committee doesn’t want to have to make this decision, so the committee would like to see either only one of these two upsets happen, or for Ohio State to lose a game and fall out of the picture.
Scenario 3: Chaos
It’s funny, but in 2020 the chaos scenario is one where the top teams win. As mentioned, upsets in the ACC and SEC Championship Games would make life a bit tough on the committee, but it wouldn’t send real chaos down the line. Our chaos scenario is all on the third and fourth spots.
What kicks off chaos? Obviously, it’s Ohio State losing a game and falling out of the picture. Add that to blowout wins by Alabama and Notre Dame in their respective conference championship games, and all of a sudden there are two spots available for plenty of teams. Texas A&M probably gets one of those spots if the Aggies win out. Cincinnati would be in decent shape as well. Who else would like this chaos? Well, Northwestern might be in good position if the Wildcats win out (including a win over Ohio State), though that loss to Michigan State will hurt. Maybe Indiana (if Ohio State doesn’t play this weekend and loses to Wisconsin or Iowa the final week) can sneak in? Is this how Oklahoma finds its way back into the Playoff, especially if Texas A&M loses one of its last two? Can Iowa State get enough chaos to overcome a three-score loss to Louisiana? What about USC, if the Trojans keep winning in a fashion as dominant as they did on Sunday? Does Georgia have a way to sneak in?
Yes, the chaos scenarios still about this year, though they all start with Alabama and Notre Dame winning their final game comfortably. (Yes, there is also a greater chaos scenario where both Alabama and Florida lose this week, but we’ll leave off discussing any scenario that starts with an Alabama loss to Arkansas.)
Week 14 Implications
Coming up this week, everything matters, and everything can fit us into one of the scenarios above. Playoff contenders kick off at noon on Saturday, with Alabama visiting Arkansas, Ohio State hosting Michigan (COVID-permitting), and Northwestern hosting Illinois, while Georgia and Oklahoma have road tests against Missouri and West Virginia, respectively.
In the afternoon, Coastal Carolina tries to cap off an undefeated regular season against Troy. The Chanticleers are in good position to get a New Years’ Six Bowl bid if Tulsa beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Speaking of Tulsa and Cincinnati, the pair faces off in the first of two back-to-back meetings on Saturday afternoon. (The first is the final regular-season game, and the two schools have each clinched their spots in the AAC Championship Game.) Also in the afternoon, Miami (FL) and Indiana will try to keep their chaos-scenario Playoff hopes alive, hosting North Carolina and Purdue, respectively.
At night, LSU travels to Florida as the Tigers try to break an embarrassing two-game losing streak, and torpedo the Gators’ Playoff hopes in the process. Rival UCLA will try to end USC’s faint Playoff hopes as well, while Texas A&M will try to continue its strong run of recent play against Ole Miss.
Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page
Leave a Reply