Not much changed this week in the College Football Playoff race because not too many games were played, especially among the top contenders. Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas A&M all had games canceled due to COVID-19. (It seems noteworthy, at least, that all three were canceled because of outbreaks among their opponents, not on their own teams.) Clemson, meanwhile, was on a bye.
With the number of games currently dwindling, and with COVID-19 cases hitting record numbers nationwide, we could very well see even more canceled games. What does this do for the selection committee? How do they judge teams that might not have played enough? That, of course, has been the question we’ve been asking all year long.
In general, the standard assumption in college football is that fewer losses is the best thing. Every week a top team avoids a loss is another week that team remains a top team. This year, though, it’s hard to know how long that truism will last. Texas A&M is currently 5-1 and in line for a real shot at the #4 Playoff spot. If the Aggies continue to not be able to play games, even with just one loss that status probably won’t last. Then again, that might depend on who is threatening to jump Texas A&M. A one-loss Oklahoma State probably eventually jumps the Aggies if Texas A&M keeps missing games. But what about an undefeated Cincinnati or BYU? We don’t know, and we’ll have to wait to find out.
More generally, though, the trend of top teams missing games will make things both easier and more difficult for the selection committee. It’s easier because it gives an easy way out to the committee–just go with the presumed top teams and there’s some solid excuses to fall back on. On the other hand, it makes things more difficult–with fewer games to differentiate teams from each other, there are more teams and fanbases with claims that the committee got it wrong.
Pac 12 running out of time
The Pac 12 was always behind the 8-ball this season. It started play the latest and is playing the fewest number of games. The best a Pac 12 champion could be was always 7-0, and that was already rough in getting the selection committee to give full credit. Now, only two weeks into the Pac 12 season, several teams have already missed games.
USC and Oregon came into the season as the top two chances for the Pac 12 to earn a Playoff bid. If those two teams meet at 6-0 in the Pac 12 Championship Game, the conference would be in contention. USC, though undefeated through two games, needed last-second wins to get there. Utah and Washington, the next two potential contenders in the conference, have already had games canceled due to COVID–Utah has already missed both of its scheduled games so far. Oregon, meanwhile, has not looked dominant enough in its first two games.
The Pac 12 is still in Playoff contention for now. But unless the season is extended (always a possibility, but no way to assume it will happen for now), no one in the conference is really in position to make a full push for a Playoff spot this year.
Week 11 Implications
This week already has a few cancelations, though none involving teams as high-profile as last week… so far.
Both Clemson and Florida have road games this week, though neither seems likely to lose. Ohio State, meanwhile, hosts Big Ten East leader Indiana. The Buckeyes might be able to slide into the Playoff even with a loss (though that looks less likely now), but Indiana will be out of it without beating Ohio State.
There is also a major game in the Sun Belt at noon, as Coastal Carolina gets one of its toughest tests of the season against Appalachian State. This doesn’t really matter for the Playoff race, but an undefeated Coastal Carolina team (with a win over Liberty) might be in the hunt for earning the Group of 5 New Years’ Six bid, though that would require Cincinnati to either lose or reach the Playoff.
Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bearcats have one of their biggest tests of the season with a trip to UCF. Florida and Texas A&M recently jumped the Bearcats in the major polls, and Cincinnati needs an impressive performance to see if it can jump back over those two. With Texas A&M having another game postponed this week, the Aggies are running out of opportunities to impress the selection committee.
In the Big Ten, the West race heats up as undefeated Wisconsin travels to undefeated Northwestern. In the Big 12, Bedlam will eliminate one of the two teams from the Playoff race, and likely the conference as a whole. And USC travels to Utah in a game that could upend the Pac 12, assuming it’s played.
There’s no other game in particular to highlight, though as always keep an eye out for upsets across the board.
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