Week 8 CFP Eliminator: LSU Defending Champions No More

Only once before in the history of the College Football Playoff have I ever eliminated the defending National Champions. In 2015, I eliminated the Ohio State Buckeyes after the final weekend of the season. Ohio State didn’t quite have the resume, and there were four clearly obvious Playoff picks that year. In every other season since the CFP began in 2014, the defending champion has reached the CFP.

This year, though, the defending champion was on the ropes from the first week. A loss to Mississippi State put LSU behind the chains, and a loss to Missouri two games later put the Tigers on the chopping block. Now, with a third loss on the season–a brutal, devastating blowout loss to Auburn–the LSU Tigers are out of Playoff contention.

There are other eliminations as more SEC teams pick up third losses. Also, the Mountain West is playing, and those teams are eliminated as they lose, though none of them have a real chance.

Lastly, the Eliminator has a fun fact for Rutgers fans. From 2014-16, the Scarlet Knights were not the first Big Ten team eliminated. In each of the last three years, Rutgers has been the first Big Ten team eliminated. This year, Rutgers returns to its status in the first three years of the Playoff, as the Scarlet Knights have outlasted Iowa, at the very least.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 8: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. I’m not giving the normal general countdown, though I will get back to that once the Pac 12 starts playing.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 8:

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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