Week 7 CFP Eliminator: Big 12 Falling

This week saw a few more eliminations than I expected, particularly because the Big 12 is rapidly trending towards no teams remaining. Oklahoma State is still undefeated, and the Cowboys will make the Playoff if that keeps up, but outside of Stillwater the Big 12’s hopes are in trouble. The conference’s only other one-loss team is Kansas State, who lost to 3-3 Arkansas State.

The Big Ten didn’t see any eliminations yet, though I was tempted to give Michigan State the boot just for losing to Rutgers. And, of course, Wisconsin could be in big trouble if the Badgers miss too many games or major players due to COVID.

Other than that, we’re seeing eliminations pick up in the SEC a week after we saw a group of ACC teams fall last week. With minimal opportunities remaining for SEC teams or ACC teams to get a second bid for their conferences, we should be able to narrow it down to a few teams remaining from each in the coming weeks. What happens once we get down to the select few, of course, is anyone’s guess at this point–though Clemson and Alabama just crushing aside any opposition seems like the most likely course at this point.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 7: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. I’m not giving the normal general countdown, though I will get back to that once the Pac 12 starts playing.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: Boise State, Colorado State, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 7:

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

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