Week 6 CFP Eliminator: ACC Teams Dropping

It’s not the ACC’s fault that eliminations in the conference are coming more rapidly than everywhere else. Most Big 12 teams are basically done for, but actual eliminations have been staved off by fortuitous splitting of losses plus a few COVID-related delayed games. The Big Ten and Pac 12 haven’t started playing yet. And numerous SEC teams are on the precipice, but it’s too early to eliminate them specifically. The losses will come shortly, and the eliminations will follow.

So don’t fret that the only Power 5 eliminations this week were three SEC teams. They are all pretty obvious eliminations. Nothing major is happening yet, but every week it feels like we’re about to break through the threshold and remove whole swaths of teams.

Of course, that’s rarely how it actually happens. There are officially 69 teams still alive, but 12 of those are in the Mountain West, so those shouldn’t really count for now (perhaps Boise State or San Diego State can make a run, but that is highly, highly unlikely). Of the 57 remaining teams (which, yes, includes SMU, Cincinnati, Liberty, and BYU), we can expect to eliminate about four or five per week. Somewhat chaotic weeks may see more, and there is definitely potential for such weeks moving forward. As with everything in this crazy year, though, we can only wait and see.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.

Week 5: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams, though not all have played this season. I’m not giving the normal general countdown, though I will get back to that once the Pac 12 starts playing.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: Cincinnati, SMU

Conference-USA: Marshall

MAC: None

Mountain West: The MWC will start play this week. Decisions on elimination will come then.

Sun Belt: None

Teams Eliminated

Week 6:

Week 5:

Week 4:

Week 3:

Week 2:

Week 1:

Make sure you follow the All Sports Discussion Twitter account at @AllSportsDACC and please like our Facebook Page