I know I’m late on the Eliminator this week. In all honesty, it’s because I’ve had a crazy week. But I’m definitely happy to pretend I was waiting for Wednesday night’s game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana. With the result of that game, by the way, the Sun Belt has been the second conference fully eliminated from the Playoff race. The MAC was eliminated two weeks ago, even though its season hasn’t started yet.
As we get into the meat of the ACC and SEC seasons, eliminations for teams are starting to come quickly. They can’t come too quickly, though–with Big 12 chaos and without knowing anything about the Big Ten and Pac 12 yet, it’s definitely possible that two-loss teams get more leeway than usual. Odds are with the shorter season that two-loss teams won’t have a real shot, but with the levels of chaos we’re seeing already, it’s a definite possibility.
Eliminations will likely come faster in the ACC than the SEC, as the format can effectively eliminate teams from the conference race faster. However, they’re both coming, with six between the two conferences this week alone.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
How it works
I need to start with two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season is a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.
Week 5: Teams Remaining
As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams. It’s not clear that all 130 will be playing this season, though all conferences are rumored to be trying. With seven eliminations in Week 2, we are down to a maximum of 112 remaining.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Boston College | Strong remaining schedule but little margin for error. |
| Clemson | Undefeated so far. |
| Georgia Tech | On the brink of elimination. |
| Miami (Fl) | Loss to Clemson hurts, but still controls its own destiny. |
| Pittsburgh | On the brink of elimination, but very strong remaining schedule. |
| N.C. State | Likely cannot afford another loss. |
| North Carolina | Undefeated so far. |
| Notre Dame | Undefeated so far. |
| Virginia | Undefeated so far. |
| Virginia Tech | Loss to North Carolina hurts, but still very much in the hunt. |
| Wake Forest | Needs to run the table. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Likely needs to run the table. |
| Iowa State | Painful opening loss. Likely needs to run the table. |
| Kansas State | Terrible Week 1 loss. Needs to run the table. |
| Oklahoma | On the brink of elimination. |
| Oklahoma State | Undefeated so far. |
| Texas | On the brink of elimination. |
| West Virginia | Loss to Oklahoma State leaves no room for error. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Has not played yet. |
| Indiana | Has not played yet. |
| Iowa | Has not played yet. |
| Maryland | Has not played yet. |
| Michigan | Has not played yet. |
| Michigan State | Has not played yet. |
| Minnesota | Has not played yet. |
| Nebraska | Has not played yet. |
| Northwestern | Has not played yet. |
| Ohio State | Has not played yet. |
| Penn State | Has not played yet. |
| Purdue | Has not played yet. |
| Rutgers | Has not played yet. |
| Wisconsin | Has not played yet. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Arizona State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| California | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Colorado | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Oregon | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Oregon State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Stanford | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| UCLA | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| USC | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Utah | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Washington | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Washington State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated so far. |
| Arkansas | Needs to run the table. |
| Auburn | Blowout loss to Georgia, but plenty of room to make up for it. |
| Florida | Loss to Texas A&M leaves little margin for error, especially if Georgia loses this week. |
| Georgia | Undefeated so far. |
| Kentucky | On the brink of elimination. |
| LSU | On the brink of elimination. |
| Missouri | On the brink of elimination. |
| South Carolina | On the brink of elimination. |
| Tennessee | Undefeated so far. |
| Texas A&M | Loss to Alabama but good chance at a strong resume. |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with third loss. |
Independents: BYU, Liberty
AAC: Houston, Cincinnati, SMU
Conference-USA: Marshall
MAC: None
Mountain West: The MWC will start play in late October. Decisions on elimination will come then.
Sun Belt: None
Teams Eliminated
Week 5:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Coastal Carolina | No chance of earning a marquee win of enough quality to impress the selection committee |
| Florida State | Eliminated with third loss |
| Louisiana | Eliminated with loss to Coastal Carolina |
| Louisville | Eliminated with third loss |
| Mississippi | Eliminated with losses to the best two teams on its schedule and no real path to picking up quality wins to counter two losses |
| Mississippi State | Eliminated with two ugly losses, even with chances at big wins upcoming |
| Syracuse | Eliminated with third loss |
| Temple | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| TCU | Eliminated with two losses and no real path to enough quality wins to counteract them |
| Vanderbilt | Eliminated with third loss |
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Florida Atlantic | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Old Dominion | Too late to get any attention even if it reverses decision to cancel season |
| Rice | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Texas Tech | Really ugly win over Houston Baptist. Loss to Texas plus Big 12 chaos means not enough chances for quality wins moving forward. |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Tulsa |
| UTSA | Eliminated with loss to UAB |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ball State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Buffalo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Kent State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ohio | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Toledo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Army | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| ECU | Eliminated with loss to UCF |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| South Alabama | Should have been eliminated weeks ago with loss to Tulane but I missed it |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UConn | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UMass | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Duke | Lost two games, and not enough quality opponents remaining to overcome it. |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma State |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Kansas | Eliminated with ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, plus a weaker Big 12 overall. |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Middle Tennessee | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| UAB | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
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