As I mentioned before, this is a strange year for the Eliminator. It’s a strange year for everything, sure, but the Eliminator is no exception. Group of 5 eliminations aren’t coming at their usual more steady pace (the Mountain West hasn’t even started playing), and the Power 5 conferences are starting in such different times and manners that it’s impossible to really judge them wholesale yet.
As I mentioned in CFP Implications, the Big 12 is in trouble. How much trouble, precisely, we don’t know–because other conferences just haven’t played as many games. Big 12 teams are certainly on the precipice, but it’s impossible to know as of now just how steep the cliff is. For a few more weeks, at least, we’re mostly in wait and see mode.
In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.
How it works
I need to start with two notes about the process.
1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.
Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season will be a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.
Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.
2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I am somewhat going against this policy, but I’m holding to it as much as I can.
Week 3: Teams Remaining
As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated.
ACC:
| Team: | Notes: |
|---|---|
| Boston College | Strong remaining schedule but little margin for error. |
| Clemson | Undefeated so far. |
| Florida State | On the brink of elimination. |
| Georgia Tech | On the brink of elimination. |
| Louisville | On the brink of elimination. |
| Miami (Fl) | Undefeated so far. |
| Pittsburgh | Loss to N.C. State is rough, but very strong remaining schedule |
| N.C. State | Likely cannot afford another loss. |
| North Carolina | Undefeated so far. |
| Notre Dame | Undefeated so far. |
| Syracuse | Needs to run the table. |
| Virginia | Undefeated so far. |
| Virginia Tech | Undefeated so far. |
| Wake Forest | Needs to run the table. |
Big 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Baylor | Likely needs to run the table. |
| Iowa State | Painful opening loss. Likely needs to run the table. |
| Kansas State | Terrible Week 1 loss. Needs to run the table. |
| Oklahoma | On the brink of elimination. |
| Oklahoma State | Undefeated so far. |
| TCU | Tough loss to Iowa State. |
| Texas | Loss to TCU and little room for quality wins makes path forward diffucult. |
| West Virginia | Loss to Oklahoma State leaves no room for error. |
Big Ten:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Illinois | Has not played yet. |
| Indiana | Has not played yet. |
| Iowa | Has not played yet. |
| Maryland | Has not played yet. |
| Michigan | Has not played yet. |
| Michigan State | Has not played yet. |
| Minnesota | Has not played yet. |
| Nebraska | Has not played yet. |
| Northwestern | Has not played yet. |
| Ohio State | Has not played yet. |
| Penn State | Has not played yet. |
| Purdue | Has not played yet. |
| Rutgers | Has not played yet. |
| Wisconsin | Has not played yet. |
Pac 12:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arizona | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Arizona State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| California | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Colorado | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Oregon | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Oregon State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Stanford | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| UCLA | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| USC | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Utah | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Washington | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
| Washington State | Might not play enough to be truly considered for CFP. |
SEC:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Alabama | Undefeated so far. |
| Arkansas | Blowout loss to Georgia, but plenty of room to make up for it. |
| Auburn | Blowout loss to Georgia, but plenty of room to make up for it. |
| Florida | Undefeated so far. |
| Georgia | Undefeated so far. |
| Kentucky | On the brink of elimination. |
| LSU | Upset loss to Mississippi State leaves doubts. |
| Mississippi | Loss to Florida but plenty of opportunities. |
| Mississippi State | Loss to Arkansas hurts. Even with LSU win, little room for error. |
| Missouri | On the brink of elimination. |
| South Carolina | On the brink of elimination. |
| Tennessee | Undefeated so far. |
| Texas A&M | Loss to Alabama but plenty of opportunities remaining. |
| Vanderbilt | On the brink of elimination. |
Independents: BYU, Liberty
AAC: Houston, Cincinnati, SMU, Temple
Conference-USA: Marshall
MAC: None
Mountain West: The MWC will start play in late October. Decisions on elimination will come then.
Sun Belt: Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
Teams Eliminated
Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out.
Week 4:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Florida Atlantic | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Louisiana Tech | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Memphis | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Old Dominion | Too late to get any attention even if it reverses decision to cancel season |
| Rice | No chance of winning any games with real quality |
| Texas Tech | Really ugly win over Houston Baptist. Loss to Texas plus Big 12 chaos means not enough chances for quality wins moving forward. |
| UCF | Eliminated with loss to Tulsa |
| UTSA | Eliminated with loss to UAB |
Week 3:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Akron | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ball State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Bowling Green | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Buffalo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Central Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Eastern Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Kent State | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Miami (Oh) | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Northern Illinois | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Ohio | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Toledo | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Western Michigan | Eliminated along with the entire MAC for only playing six games |
| Army | Eliminated with loss to Cincinnati |
| ECU | Eliminated with loss to UCF |
| Florida International | Eliminated with loss to Liberty |
| Georgia Southern | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| South Alabama | Should have been eliminated weeks ago with loss to Tulane but I missed it |
| Troy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| New Mexico State | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UConn | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
| UMass | Eliminated for not starting season yet |
Week 2:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Appalachian State | Eliminated with loss to Marshall |
| Duke | Lost two games, and not enough quality opponents remaining to overcome it. |
| Georgia State | Eliminated with loss to Louisiana |
| North Texas | Eliminated with loss to SMU |
| Tulane | Eliminated with loss to Navy |
| Tulsa | Eliminated with loss to Oklahoma State |
| South Florida | Eliminated with loss to Notre Dame |
Week 1:
| Team: | Notes: |
| Arkansas State | Eliminated with loss to Memphis |
| Charlotte | Eliminated with loss to Appalachian State |
| Kansas | Eliminated with ugly loss to Coastal Carolina, plus a weaker Big 12 overall. |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Middle Tennessee | Eliminated with loss to Army |
| Navy | Eliminated with loss to BYU |
| Southern Mississippi | Eliminated with loss to South Alabama |
| Texas State | Eliminated with loss to UTSA |
| UAB | Eliminated with loss to Miami (Fl) |
| UTEP | Eliminated with loss to Texas |
| Western Kentucky | Eliminated with loss to Louisville |
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