The Big 12 was the first conference to really jump into play, and things have not worked out so well for the conference. Aside from a few canceled games on the COVID front, the Big 12 is seeing chaos and misfortune about. It started early, with nonconference losses to Sun Belt teams. That followed with Oklahoma losing (and Texas almost losing) last week.
This week, things got even worse. Oklahoma lost a second straight game. Texas, meanwhile, lost to TCU. Iowa State–arguably one of the conference’s top two teams right now–has a loss to the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns on its resume, and not a particularly close loss at that. Oklahoma is all but out of the Playoff picture. Texas is on the way to joining its rival. Right now, the Big 12’s best Playoff hopes rest on Oklahoma State going undefeated.
All of this, of course, needs to be set against the backdrop that the Big 12 is the deepest into its season so far. We can talk about the conference falling behind in the Playoff picture, but it’s not like anyone else is moving ahead yet. It’s definitely possible that we see similar chaos in at least another power conference.
Of course, the Big 12 has structural issues that no other conference has, and those issues are highlighted this year. The Big 12 is playing a full round robin schedule. Every team plays every other team. There’s no way for any top team to escape losses due to scheduling luck. The ACC hasn’t seen such potential luck pan out yet, but North Carolina and Clemson don’t play each other. We could in theory see two undefeated teams meet in the ACC Championship Game. In the SEC, Florida doesn’t play Alabama. The Pac 12, meanwhile, is playing no cross-divisional games before the final weekend. In the Big Ten, neither Wisconsin nor Minnesota is playing Ohio State or Penn State in the regular season (both play Michigan).
We all see the Big 12’s problems right now. But how will the committee be able to judge these teams? Is a 6-1 Pac 12 runner-up any more deserving of a Playoff bid than a 9-2 Oklahoma or Texas? Is a 7-0 champion even more deserving? What about a 10-1 Florida team whose only ranked win at the end of the year is against Georgia? (Or even a 9-1 Florida team that loses to Georgia?)
It’s way too early to discuss these scenarios. We don’t even have the full country playing yet, so we can’t really compare how seasons are developing and evolving from one conference to another. All we can do is track each conference by itself and wait, for now. Still, we have to be aware of these foundational structural differences. There’s always a bit of this every year–the Big 12 (and to a lesser extent the Pac 12) always faces a structural disadvantage. This year, though, those disadvantages are far more pronounced. We don’t have any word yet from the CFP or the selection committee how precisely they’ll compare disparate schedules. Again, they do the same thing every year–but this year the differences are much bigger than usual.
AAC collapse
Last week we pointed out that a potential major beneficiary of any Big 12 collapse would be the AAC. That was true, but the Big 12’s chaotic week was matched by the AAC. Memphis’ loss to SMU wasn’t the end of the world, since SMU is still undefeated. UCF falling to Tulsa, though, leaves Cincinnati as the only real potential Playoff dark horse in the conference.
Of course, less concern about an AAC bid might make the Pac 12 more comfortable. Even with the champion only playing seven games, a 7-0 Pac 12 team will get a serious look, especially if it’s Oregon, Washington, or USC. And, of course, we’ll have to watch how the Big Ten, ACC, and SEC develop, because all of those leagues definitely could have two-bid potential.
Week 5 Implications
It’s still too early to point to individual games to map out scenarios. The Red River Rivalry of course has huge impact on the Big 12, but it doesn’t directly impact the Playoff race in any ways to really pinpoint yet. Keep an eye, though, on Louisiana against Coastal Carolina. The Louisiana pipe dream of running the table while Iowa State does the same in the Big 12 is still alive, and this is one of the two biggest tests remaining for the Ragin’ Cajuns (the other is a trip to UAB in three weeks).
Of course, there are plenty of huge games that have major Playoff implications. Virginia Tech-North Carolina, Tennessee-Georgia, and Miami-Clemson are all major matchups. But this early in the season, with so many pieces moving around, we still can’t look at any game and give specific implications moving forward. We can, though, point to Virginia Tech-North Carolina. As mentioned before, North Carolina doesn’t face Clemson. So the ACC has a better chance of two undefeated teams–and therefore an easier path to two Playoff bids–if North Carolina wins this game.
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