Week 3 CFP Eliminator: Slow Week, but Goodbye MAC

As I mentioned last week, this is a strange year for the Eliminator. It’s a strange year for everything, sure, but the Eliminator is no exception. Usually we see plenty of eliminations each week at this point in the season since Group of 5 teams are playing their nonconference games. This year, though, most Power 5 conferences are keeping the games in conference. Without those, we’re not seeing the smaller conferences eliminated as fast as usual. (And, of course, with the MAC and Mountain West not playing any games yet, there are no losses to eliminate teams.)

Of course, this is a double-edged sword for Group of 5 teams. Sure, I’m giving them leeway in the Eliminator. But without any chances at huge nonconference upsets, these teams have no real way to even get the CFP selection committee to look at them. Though–and perhaps we’ll discuss this in depth in the coming weeks if it becomes more relevant–with the Big 12’s turbulent start to the season, it is possible that an AAC team like Cincinnati or UCF could get some consideration if they can run the table.

The lack of games is making it easier for me to eliminate teams before they lose, though. For example, after it announced only a six-game season, I’m eliminating the entire MAC before its season even begins. Similarly, independents UConn, UMass, and New Mexico State don’t have time to get any consideration, even if they start up a season. I’ll likely do the same to every Conference-USA and Mountain West team (save perhaps Boise State) in short order, even if teams are still undefeated. The same will be true of the Sun Belt, though an undefeated Louisiana likely won’t be officially eliminated until later in the season, as Iowa State loses games.

The SEC began play this week with some chaotic results. None of that particularly affects the Eliminator yet, as any one-loss SEC team should still be a near lock.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season will be a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year I’m already moving past this general policy, though I am keeping it (for now) for those teams that started their seasons on time.

Week 3: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: BYU, Liberty

AAC: UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, ECU, SMU, Temple

Conference-USA: Marshall, Old Dominion, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, FAU, Rice

MAC: None

Mountain West: The MWC will start play in late October. Decisions on elimination will come then.

Sun Belt: Louisiana, Coastal Carolina

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out.

Week 3:

Appalachian StateEliminated with loss to MarshallAppalachian StateEliminated with loss to Marshall

Week 2:

Week 1:

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