Week 2 CFP Eliminator: When to eliminate P5 teams

Eliminating Power Five teams early in the season is always a question for me. Sure, it’s a mostly irrelevant question–we’re usually pretty sure which P5 teams won’t be winning out. Still, my principle here at the Eliminator remains the same: losses will come when they come, and I have no need to assume them. I eliminate teams when they won’t make the College Football Playoff even if they win out, regardless of how unlikely winning out actually is.

This year, though, is a bit weirder than, well, every other year. Teams are playing fewer games. Not everyone is playing the same number of games. And, with some teams starting so much earlier than others, we are going to get unbalanced views of teams and resumes for a while. That’s fine, but it makes questions of eliminations somewhat awkward. That being said, we can look at a few teams so far and why they are/aren’t eliminated.

Three ACC teams are currently 0-2. However, I have only eliminated one of those three. At this point, I have to assume that any two-loss ACC champion will be in the hunt. So why have I eliminated Duke, but not Syracuse or Wake Forest? Simply put, the remaining schedule just doesn’t give Duke much of a chance at quality wins. The only remaining games against teams that will reasonably be considered good wins are against North Carolina and Virginia Tech (and maybe Virginia). Even at 10-2, Duke will have a maximum of three real quality wins. Syracuse, on the other hand, would have to beat both Clemson and Notre Dame (likely Clemson twice) to win out. Wake Forest would need to beat Notre Dame, Miami, North Carolina, Louisville, and likely Clemson (not to mention both Virginia and Virginia Tech) to win out.

In short, Duke has a schedule that lacks in quality win potential, and they already have two losses. This early in the season, I’m not eliminating teams that only have one of those strikes against. But with two? There’s no way back.

In addition to in this weekly article, I will also be counting down the eliminated teams in this Twitter thread. Be sure to follow the eliminations there as well as here, where I’ll be able to explain these more fully.

How it works

I need to start with two notes about the process.

1. The premise: My goal here is to not predict individual games or scenarios. With every single team, I ask myself one question only–if this team wins the rest of its games, will it make the Playoff? If the answer is no, that team is now eliminated. I don’t care how impossible it will be to win out; that’s not my job here. I will eliminate a team when that eventual loss comes. There’s no need to do it assuming a future loss.

Now, how do I determine whether a particular resume is Playoff-worthy or not? For that, I look at 2007. 2007 was the most chaotic year we’ve had in college football. So I compare a resume to what the top four would look like with 2007-levels of chaos. If the resume is good enough, the team is still alive. Otherwise, it’s eliminated. As the year goes on, once I see how much chaos this season is really having, I can then adjust my standards accordingly, and start to look at individual scenarios and how outlandish they are. Keep in mind that this season will be a weird one, so I may have to replace my “judging by 2007” standard, but for now I can stick with it.

Lastly, I will refer to currently-ranked teams when giving notes on a team. Keep in mind that where a team is ranked now is irrelevant. All that matters are the rankings late in the season. Being ranked now just means that a team is more likely to be ranked then, not that facing that team will definitely be meaningful.

2. Group of 5 teams: My general policy is not to eliminate any Group of 5 teams until they lose a game. Part of it is in line with the Eliminator theory–crazy things can happen in college football, and you never know how far out an undefeated team is. In reality, without hype coming in and without some marquee nonconference wins, no G5 team ever has a realistic chance. This year, without major nonconference games, it’s even worse in ways. I have not yet officially eliminated any teams without losses, but we are rapidly approaching a point where I will have to do so for the MAC and Mountain West, even if they reverse their decisions about playing. I will also be more willing to eliminate teams before they lose as the season goes on, but we’re not there yet.

Week 2: Teams Remaining

As the season goes on, I’ll add more detailed notes by each team explaining why a questionable team has not yet been eliminated. For now, though, we’ll start with just the list. We began the year with 130 teams. It’s not clear that all 130 will be playing this season, though all conferences are rumored to be trying. With seven eliminations in Week 2, we are down to a maximum of 112 remaining.

ACC:

Big 12:

Big Ten:

Pac 12:

SEC:

Independents: Army, BYU, UConn, New Mexico State, Liberty, UMass

AAC: UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, ECU, SMU, Temple

Conference-USA: Marshall, Old Dominion, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, FAU, FIU, Rice

MAC: The MAC will likely not play in time to be eligible for the CFP. Expect elimination in a week or two.

Mountain West: The MWC will likely not play in time to be eligible for the CFP. Expect elimination in a week or two.

Sun Belt: Louisiana, Troy, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, South Alabama

Teams Eliminated

Also, as the season goes on, and when I start eliminating Power 5 teams, I’ll give more detail in the reason for each elimination. For now, the reason is simple. Any Group of 5 team that loses a game is out.

Week 2:

Week 1:

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