#StayHealthy and practice social distancing
Back in early April @JamesIV1978 wrote we should be prepared not to have college football in the fall. I was more optimistic and wrote Why there’s a good chance we’ll have college football in the fall.
In my article, I wrote three things had to happen for fall sports namely football to return.
Three things have to be in place before football can begin though. I thought all were attainable at the time.
1. An approved treatment must approved by the FDA by no later than summer. Multiple drugs are in clinical trials. This isn’t a vaccine, but a treatment. I’d be surprised if something isn’t approved within the next 6 weeks.
Remdesivir was approved by the FDA back in May as a treatment for coronavirus. A home run treatment it isn’t, but it does help the recovery times of those admitted to a hospital. Multiple treatments and vaccines are under investigation.
2. Testing and results need a less than a 48 hour turnaround time. A 15 minute test is already in limited use , and should be widely used in several weeks. This will allow players and staff to be tested quickly and often. Whether the stadiums are full is another matter, but if you can test players and staff – it is far safer for them.
This seems to be going in the right direction. Result return times can take a matter of hours, but sometimes can take as long as week. College Athletes and staff are being tested as they return to campus this month. I don’t see this criteria as an obstacle to the return of fall sports. Testing can be inconsistent, but it is getting better.
3. Sustained containment – If the decline starts in late April to early May, there will be at least 2 months to monitor containment data. This is assuming people maintain the practice of social distancing. You the fan can do your part and stay home where possible.
Now we have a real problem. Several states are recording record numbers of cases. It’s June and more 20 states are going in the wrong direction. Oregon is pausing their re-opening. Houston, Texas is considering another lockdown. This isn’t a political discussion. Where ever the fault lies from national and/or state leaders to personal responsibility, this isn’t were we needed to be in June.
In a statement that should be of major concern, the state of Texas which has some of the most aggressive re-opening policies in the country has already admitted stadiums will likely be at no better than 50% capacity.
News from late last night: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told the state’s 12 FBS athletic directors not expect football capacity to be above 50% this fall, per source https://t.co/WmioMVfREX via @usatoday
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) June 13, 2020
It’s now 2 months and a week later from our original articles. MLB and the NBA still haven’t agreed on a re-opening plan, and the fall sports season is now just under 3 months away. When Texas is hedging on fall attendance, you can be sure the rest of the country is as well.
We are about 6 weeks away from the point of no return. If coronavirus numbers remain where they are without a sustained containment and decline, we could be looking at a fall definitely without fans in attendance and a real threat of a fall without sports.
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