Why there’s a good chance we’ll have college football in the fall.

#StayHealthy and practice social distancing.

Blog contributor @JamesIV1978 recently wrote an article that we should be prepared not to have college football in the fall. 

He made several good points, and it’s possible that could be the outcome. I just don’t think that will be the case.

I’m certainly not minimizing what is happening. The Coronavirus is not the flu. It’s overwhelmed hospital systems in first world countries, and brought the world economy to a standstill. At this moment not a single county severely impacted by the Coronavirus has been able to restart their sports leagues. That includes China where community transmitted cases have shrunk to double digits a day, in a a country of over 1 billion.

I’m still optimistic, and here’s why. Whether you believe China’s actual numbers, ( I personally think they were grossly under-reported ), I do believe the numbers went up, went down and have showed sustained containment for 1 month. The trends I trust. This was over a 2-3 month period  from lockdown period in late January to now.  Film and TV shoots are starting to return there. 

Italy was hit extremely hard with Coronavirus, and now seems to be on the other side of their peak.   This occurred in 30 days. A further trend downward in the next month, would closely match China indicating 40-70 days is the life cycle of spread from when social distancing protocols were started. The United States is roughly 20 days into this and already glimmers of positive data are creeping in. We should start seeing the peak within 2 weeks and then the start of decline by mid to late April. Sometime in May if we follow the trajectory of other countries there should be a sustained decline.

That’s at least 2 months before fall practice should even begin. Limited summer workouts may even be in place sometime before then.

Three things have to be in place before football can begin though. I think all are attainable.

1. An approved treatment must approved by the FDA by no later than summer. Multiple drugs are in clinical trials. This isn’t a vaccine, but a treatment. I’d be surprised if something isn’t approved within the next 6 weeks.
2. Testing and results need a less than a 48 hour turnaround time. A 15 minute test is already in limited use , and should be widely used in several weeks. This will allow players and staff to be tested quickly and often. Whether the stadiums are full is another matter, but if you can test players and staff – it is far safer for them.
3. Sustained containment – If the decline starts in late April to early May, there will be at least 2 months to monitor containment data. This is assuming people maintain the practice of social distancing. You the fan can do your part and stay home where possible.

Also keep in mind, there are a number of correlative studies where warm weather and humidity seem to slow the spread of the virus. It’s doesn’t stop the spread, just slows. The summer should allow at least some respite for further virus preparation.

I wish I could promise that we’ll definitely see football in the fall. I can’t do that. If we aren’t seeing things brought under control in the next 4-8 weeks though, then we are having much bigger issues that whether football will be played or not.

I’m optimistic, and I just don’t see enough reasons to think at the moment.

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