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QUESTION: What is the significance of Louisville’s win over Virginia?
We are still in the middle of the 2019 season, but it was hard to avoid the sense that when the Louisville Cardinals defeated the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, they made a statement which will carry into the 2020 season.
We know Louisville won’t get a top-tier bowl bid or a division or conference title. The Cardinals were never going to reach those milestones in 2019.
This win over Virginia means they will walk away from 2019 with as much as they possibly could have hoped for, all things considered.
This win over Virginia gives Scott Satterfield victories over the two other coaches at the forefront of the ACC Coach of the Year race: Bronco Mendenhall of UVA and Dave Clawson of Wake Forest.
This victory on the last Saturday of October gives Louisville a 5-3 record, which means an almost-certain bowl bid. Even if Louisville stumbles in its three remaining road games — none of which are layups, though all are winnable — a home game against Syracuse promises a sixth win and a postseason dance card. That gives Satterfield the ability to conduct a bunch of extra practices and give his players an on-ramp into spring ball for 2020, when he can go even deeper with his system and playbook.
This victory gives Louisville (5-3 overall, 3-2 in the ACC) a legitimate claim to third-best status in the ACC over Virginia (5-3 overall, 3-2 ACC), with Wake Forest being second and Clemson first. Given all the flux and churn in the ACC in the 13 locales other than Clemson, this win — not over a Cadillac program, but certainly over a good team with a chance of winning the ACC Coastal — enables Louisville to think it can become the second-best ACC program next year.
That is NOT an absurd or unreasonable desire. Not now. Not after handling Virginia and dominating the game after halftime.
Go ahead, tell me — tell me the non-Clemson program which is a surefire candidate to finish in the ACC’s top tier (top four) next season.
There isn’t one… but if I was to offer an early guess, Louisville would probably come up first.
Satterfield and his staff are rapidly improving a youthful yet talented roster. Bobby Petrino quit on his players a year ago. These players (plus the newcomers) wanted to be coached. Satterfield is coaching the heck out of them.
There is more to the story than Louisville itself.
Virginia was supposed to be in line for a great season this year — or at least, this was the Hoos’ time to make a big statement.
If they finish 9-3, that’s not bad… but in this ACC, with so many fragile teams, a 9-3 season would rate as a missed opportunity if UVA doesn’t get an Orange Bowl bid. Wake Forest is currently in line to snag that big prize.
Virginia Tech, Florida State and Miami — the big-name programs expected to thrive in the ACC back in 2004 (the Hokies have done their job over 15 years but have been a non-factor in recent seasons) — do not appear remotely ready to contend in 2020.
North Carolina State sharply regressed this season. So did Syracuse.
Georgia Tech is a total mess. Duke, Pittsburgh, and Boston College are treading water for the most part — not terrible, but not especially threatening or formidable.
If I was to identify three non-Clemson teams which would fill out the ACC’s top four in 2020, my early list consists of:
— Wake Forest, given Dave Clawson’s ability to maximize his available talent in any season
— North Carolina, given Sam Howell’s immense upside as a freshman quarterback who is likely to get better
— Louisville, in light of everything we have seen from Scott Satterfield over two months
Louisville will host Wake Forest next season, so I would likely put the Cardinals over the Demon Deacons in a 2020 pecking order.
Yes, we still have a lot of football to play in 2019, and yes, if Louisville goes 9-3, we will have a lot to discuss.
Yet, even if Louisville loses two of its remaining four games, the Cards will have a winning season, a bowl bid, and a very bright future.
They found a competent coach in the most recent carousel, and have made more progress than most teams in the United States, relative to their position at the end of 2018.
Yes, this win over Virginia is pretty big.
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