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The Virginia Cavaliers are not expected to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this weekend in South Bend, Indiana. Losing this game does not own the power to redefine the Cavaliers’ season.
The main goal for 2019 is to win the ACC Coastal. The main goal within that larger goal is to beat Virginia Tech along the way. The third goal — which flows from the first two — is to win all the winnable games on the schedule. Given that Virginia doesn’t face Clemson in any of its first 12 games, the Hoos can realistically aspire to an 11-1 record through 12 games.
Notre Dame is the one game they don’t figure to win.
Everything else is in play, and UVA will be judged by how it fares against the non-Clemson portion of the ACC. How well Virginia performs in its non-Clemson ACC games will give UVA a shot at Clemson in Game 13, otherwise known as the ACC Championship Game. How well UVA plays the non-Clemson ACC will also determine if Virginia can create an 11-win regular season, which would very likely bring with it an Orange Bowl bid, which would be a soaring triumph for Bronco Mendenhall and the program.
The Notre Dame game is a house-money situation for Virginia. It is the one game in the first 12 the Cavaliers can realistically afford to lose… and if they win, they could dream the biggest dreams as their season continues.
Naturally, the first question connected to UVA-Notre Dame is if the Hoos can win. The obvious follow up is if Virginia can play well. Even in defeat, a brilliant performance would win a lot of national admiration and move the season — and the program — forward.
Those are good and legitimate questions. They do form part of the backdrop to this Saturday’s game, a coveted opportunity for Virginia to make a resounding nationwide statement.
Other people can — and will — break down film and explore how Virginia can upset the Fighting Irish, who might be depressed and emotionally vulnerable after spilling the tank in a loss to Georgia. That is also a worthy endeavor. Virginia played against Old Dominion in Week 4 like a team which was looking ahead to its next big moment.
Now we all get to see what the Hoos have in their toolbox.
It will be exciting to find out.
What I am most interested in, however, is not whether UVA will win or even play well. I am interested in those questions, but I am MORE interested in this next question: HOW will the Hoos play the Irish?
Will Virginia try to win a rock fight, much as Notre Dame tried to win a rock fight against Georgia?
To be sure, this is a valid and logical approach for Mendenhall. Mucking this game up and relying on defense — Virginia’s foremost strength — against a limited Notre Dame passing game could offer UVA a realistic path to victory. I would be inclined to think that Virginia has a much better chance of winning a 20-17 game than a 30-27 game.
Yet, with Virginia operating in relatively new circumstances — one of its rare tastes of hope since George Welsh retired — I am supremely interested not (just) in how well the Hoos play, but how they choose to approach this moment.
The conservative approach, as stated above, has its undeniable merits, but given the reality that this is not a make-or-break game for Virginia in the midst of a promising season, Saturday in South Bend gives Mendenhall a chance to let it ride. This is a time when the Hoos can cast caution to the wind and throw the kitchen sink at Notre Dame.
Being cautious and relying on defense is not the wrong approach… nor is it necessarily the right approach, either. We should see at some point in the first half if UVA can remain competitive with a minimalist approach. If it is clear that the Cavaliers can thrive by entrusting this game completely to their defense, so be it.
However, what if it becomes evident that Virginia will need to take chances, like a tennis player going for aces on his second serve, not just his first serve? If that scenario emerges, will Mendenhall be willing to embrace a liberated game and pursue a wide range of avenues to victory?
A game plan built on mastering the basics contains a subtle piece of wisdom: We don’t have to change who we are, and we don’t have to worry about tricking the opposition. We can simply make routine plays and prevail. There is a certain confidence in using such a game plan. Teams which can successfully implement it make a loud and convincing statement about their greatness.
Yet, as soon as the limitations of a tried-and-true approach become apparent, a competitor needs to know when to change tactics and unchain himself to an established modus operandi.
Maybe Virginia can win with the tried-and-true approach. Start there.
However, if it becomes clear that the Hoos must take risks against Notre Dame, will they be willing to take them?
I am interested in whether Virginia succeeds, but I am more interested in whether UVA will pull out all the stops.
If you are playing with house money, trying every possible way to win isn’t desperation. It reflects an understanding of a larger situation in which freedom carries no costs.
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