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After North Carolina State lost to Georgia Tech on Wednesday night to throw itself squarely on the bubble, I wrote about the ACC Tournament situation facing the Wolfpack and fellow bubble-hugger Clemson.
The Wolfpack and the Tigers live in a climate of constraints. Only one of the two will escape the second round of the ACC Tournament to play (probably) Virginia in the quarterfinals. Failure to beat Virginia will mean a less-than-fully-certain Selection Sunday. The winner of the N.C. State-Clemson second-rounder next Wednesday will at least enjoy some leverage in the bubble picture, but not enough to gain lock status. The winner of that 8-9 game in the ACC Tournament won’t be in huge trouble… but if it can’t beat Virginia, it will still be in limbo heading into Sunday evening and the revelation of the brackets.
This brings us to part two of this ACC bubble drama. If the NCSU-Clemson winner beats Virginia and becomes a lock, this conversation will go away. What I am about to say applies if the winner of Wednesday’s 8-9 game loses in Thursday’s quarterfinals, and especially if it gets blown out.
We have seen this twice in the past three Selection Sunday announcements: The Syracuse Orange were viewed to be in very deep trouble — basically where the loser of North Carolina State-Clemson next Wednesday will be on Selection Sunday 2019. Yet, the Orange were placed in the field of 68.
You can cite analytics or statistics or various numerical stews to back up your point, and I’m not going to say you’re wrong. I will only speak for myself in saying that Syracuse fetches good TV ratings and brings a robust brand name to the NCAA Tournament. As much as we would all love to think that these committees — in basketball or football — are solely devoted to “the numbers,” they are human beings who want to create valuable TV properties for the corporations which shelled out huge dollars to televise their event, be it the NCAA Tournament or the College Football Playoff.
This is why Oklahoma football gets in and TCU doesn’t. This is why Alabama football gets in and UCF doesn’t.
This is why Syracuse gets in and Monmouth doesn’t. This is why UCLA gets in and Colorado State doesn’t.
Very simply, then: Are either North Carolina State basketball or Clemson basketball going to be seen as ACC properties, and therefore valuable in a 50-50 discussion on Selection Sunday in that committee room, or will they be viewed as “less than Syracuse” and not given the same benefit of the doubt the Orange received.
I hasten to add: NCSU or Clemson (the team which loses next Wednesday at the ACC tourney) would likely not deserve to make the NCAA Tournament. That is its own conversation on its own terms.
However, one can be skeptical of the loser’s chances on March 17 and yet also note that if the NCSU-Clemson loser doesn’t get in, it would represent an imbalance relative to Syracuse. What might be fair on a national level (the NCSU-Clemson loser not getting in the NCAAs) would be unfair in terms of the recent treatment of ACC bubble teams. Conversely, the NCSU-CU loser getting into the Big Dance might seem unfair to the national populace, but it would be received with a sense of justice in either Raleigh or Clemson. Wolfpack or Tiger fans would say, “Wow, we were given the same benefit of the doubt that Syracuse was.”
North Carolina State and Clemson live in a climate of constraints… but maybe the loser will receive the benefit of the doubt in Syracuse-like fashion. That is the last best hope for the ACC to get each of its bubble teams into the NCAA Tournament, and collect nine tournament invitations this March.
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